000 AXPZ20 KNHC 242117 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SAT AUG 24 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM IVO CENTERED NEAR 22.9N 114.1W AT 24/2100 UTC OR 265 MI W OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO...AND 345 MI S OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO MOVING NNW AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS BETWEEN 75 AND 150 NM IN THE N QUADRANT...AND ALSO WITHIN 240 NM IN THE E QUADRANT. IVO IS MOVING OVER COLDER SSTS AND IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TONIGHT...THEN TO REMNANT LOW BY SUN NIGHT. LARGE SOUTHERLY SWELLS ARE IMPACTING THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...AS WELL AS FEEDING UP INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS NW MEXICO WITH THE RISK OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ...TROPICAL WAVES... THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS INTO THE AREA FROM 1009 MB LOW PRES OVER FAR NORTHERN GUATEMALA INTO THE NE PACIFIC WATERS S OF GUATEMALA TO 11N92W. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED BELOW. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT W AROUND 10 KT THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SOUTHERLY FLOW S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG BY SUN EVENING ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 96W AND 106W ALONG WITH 8 FT SEAS AS THE WAVE INTERACTS WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SHIFT W WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES PROGRESSION THROUGH MON. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 09N111W THEN RESUMES FROM 18N116W TO LOW PRES NEAR 14.5N126W TO 11N140W. NO ITCZ AXIS IS PRESENT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 91W AND 109W...WITHIN 90-120 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 88W AND 106W...WITHIN 180 NM SE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 116W AND 118W...AND ALSO FROM 10N TO 12N W OF 133W. ALSO...SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF A LINE FROM 03N78W TO 06N85W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A PARENT ANTICYCLONE W OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS THROUGH 22N140W TO 22N124W. DRY AND STABLE AIR REMAINS ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 14N W OF 124W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N121W TO 22N123W. DRY AND STABLE AIR ALSO COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS W OF A LINE FROM 30N116W TO 20N120W TO 14N130W. TROPICAL MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS IS BEING ADVECTED FROM THE MONSOON TROUGH TO THE N-NE OVER AND AROUND IVO TO ACROSS WESTERN MEXICO. OTHERWISE...MAINLY UPPER LEVEL ZONAL/EASTERLY FLOW DOMINATES ALOFT. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...1023 MB HIGH PRES IS W OF THE AREA NEAR 30N147W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING TO THE E-SE TO NEAR 25N124W. WEAK AND ILL-DEFINED 1008 MB LOW PRES IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 14.5N126W. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS NEAR THE LOW. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. OUTSIDE OF IVO AND THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE DISCUSSED ABOVE...MAINLY MODERATE WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS...LOCALLY FRESH IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. $$ LEWITSKY