000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240925
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
1005 UTC SAT AUG 24 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.
                                    
...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                           
 
TROPICAL STORM IVO CENTERED NEAR 22.4N 112.7W AT 0900 UTC OR 180 
MILES W OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MOVING NNW AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED 
IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

IVO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A TROPICAL STORM THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS 
BEFORE IT ENCOUNTERS COLDER WATER W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WHICH 
WILL CAUSE IT TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW BY LATE SUN. A VERY 
LONG FETCH OF SW WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS 
ALLOWING FOR COMBINED SEAS TO BUILD TO 18 FT SE OF THE CENTER. 
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGH SEAS REACHING WELL NORTHWARD INTO THE 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA BEGINNING THROUGH SUN...THE RESULT OF S-SE 
WINDS EXTENDING THE FETCH OF SOUTHERLY SWELL UNUSUALLY FAR 
NORTHWARD INTO THE GULF.

LARGE SURF WILL IMPACT THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA 
TONIGHT...SPREADING TO THE COASTS OF THE SOUTHERN GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA THROUGH SAT. TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD 
OVER NW MEXICO THROUGH THIS WEEKEND BRINING THE POTENTIAL FOR 
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...       

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N85W TO 10N100W TO 14N106W THEN RESUMES 
NEAR 16N120W TO LOW PRES NEAR 14N126W TO 11N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS FROM 103W-106W AND 
WITHIN 90 NM S OF AXIS FROM 132W-139W.

...DISCUSSION... 

A LARGE AND BROAD ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION HAS SHIFTED W OF THE 
AREA HOWEVER A RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE AREA NEAR 22N140W TO 
24N126W. VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR EXTENDS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION 
AREA N OF 15N W OF 128W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH E OF THE RIDGE 
EXTENDS FROM 32N122W TO 20N125W WITH VERY DRY AND STABLE AREA W 
OF THE TROUGH TO 128W. SW FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE AND 
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM THE DEEP TROPICS TO THE NE ACROSS FAR NW 
MEXICO OUT AHEAD OF TROPICAL STORM IVO. ELSEWHERE ALOFT MAINLY 
ZONAL EASTERLY WINDS COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA S OF 15N.

SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 18N W OF 125W. GENTLE TO 
MODERATE WINDS DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA...OUTSIDE OF TROPICAL STORM IVO DISCUSSED ABOVE. 

TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND 
WESTERN GUATEMALA MAY INDUCE ENHANCED WINDS THROUGH INTO THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AS FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS TODAY WITH SEAS 
BUILDING TO 6-7 FT BY THIS MORNING.
 
$$
DGS