000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240234
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
0405 UTC SAT AUG 24 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC.
                                    
...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                           
 
TROPICAL STORM IVO CENTERED NEAR 20.7N 112.0W AT 24/0300 UTC OR 
205 MI SW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MOVING N AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED 
IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

IVO IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT 12-24 
HOURS BEFORE IT ENCOUNTERS COLDER WATER W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA 
WHICH WILL CAUSE IT TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW BY SUN EVENING. A 
VERY LONG FETCH OF SW WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE 
IS ALLOWING FOR COMBINED SEAS TO BUILD TO 17 FT SE OF THE 
CENTER. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGH SEAS REACHING WELL NORTHWARD 
INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BEGINNING TONIGHT THROUGH SUN...THE 
RESULT OF S-SE WINDS EXTENDING THE FETCH OF SOUTHERLY SWELL 
UNUSUALLY FAR NORTHWARD INTO THE GULF.

LARGE SURF WILL IMPACT THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA 
TONIGHT...SPREADING TO THE COASTS OF THE SOUTHERN GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA THROUGH SAT. TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD 
OVER NW MEXICO THROUGH THIS WEEKEND BRINING THE POTENTIAL FOR 
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...       

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 12N106W THEN RESUMES 
NEAR 16N119W TO LOW PRES NEAR 14N126W TO LOW PRES NEAR 12N134W 
TO 12N140W. NO ITCZ AXIS IS PRESENT. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 119W 
AND 123W...AND WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 
127W AND 134W.

...DISCUSSION... 

AT THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE AND BROAD ANTICYCLONE HAS SHIFTED 
W OF THE AREA TO NEAR 20N145W...HOWEVER VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR 
EXTENDS E OF IT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS N OF 15N W OF 128W. 
A TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE N CENTRAL WATERS FROM NEAR 32N118W 
THROUGH 25N121W TO 16N127W WITH VERY DRY AND STABLE AREA W OF 
THE TROUGH TO 128W. SW FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE AND 
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM THE DEEP TROPICS TO THE NE ACROSS FAR NW 
MEXICO OUT AHEAD OF TROPICAL STORM IVO. ELSEWHERE ALOFT... 
MAINLY ZONAL EASTERLY WINDS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE 
DISCUSSION WATERS.

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...1021 MB HIGH PRES IS NEAR 32N144W 
WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 26N118W. GENTLE TO 
MODERATE WINDS DOMINATE W OF A LINE FROM 24N111W TO 11N140W 
ALONG WITH 4-7 FT SEAS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS COVER THE REMAINDER 
OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS...OUTSIDE OF TROPICAL STORM IVO 
DISCUSSED ABOVE. 

A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND 
WESTERN GUATEMALA MAY INDUCE ENHANCED WINDS THROUGH THE CHIVELA 
PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AS FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS LATE 
TONIGHT AND SAT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 6-7 FT BY EARLY SAT 
MORNING.
 
$$
LEWITSKY