000 AXPZ20 KNHC 230253 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC FRI AUG 23 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E CENTERED NEAR 17.9N 112.5W AT 23/0300 UTC OR 355 NM SSW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MOVING NNW AT 5 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE DEPRESSION HAS A SHORT WINDOW OF TIME TO STRENGTHEN WITH SSTS SIGNIFICANTLY DROPPING IN 48 HOURS OR LESS AS IT CONTINUES TO THE NNW. THE LATEST FORECAST HAS THE DEPRESSION STRENGTHENING TO A TROPICAL STORM BY FRI MORNING...THEN WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW BY SUN EVENING. A LONG FETCH OF SW WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION ARE LIKELY TO BUILD SEAS MUCH HIGHER THAN USUAL WITH THE POTENTIAL TO HEAVILY IMPACT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST...INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AS AN ASSOCIATED LARGE SOUTHERLY SWELL IS FORCED TO FUNNEL INTO THE GULF. MAXIMUM SEAS ARE ALREADY 14 FT WITH 12 FT SEAS EXTENDING TO WITHIN 180 NM IN THE SE QUADRANT. TROPICAL MOISTURE MAY SURGE NORTHWARD TOWARD NW MEXICO FROM DAYS 3-5 INTRODUCING THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 09N90W TO 14N102W THEN RESUMES FROM 16N118W TO LOW PRES NEAR 15N121W TO LOW PRES NEAR 12N133W TO 11N140W. NO ITCZ AXIS IS PRESENT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN 82W AND 91W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 100W AND 103W...AND WITHIN 90 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 123W AND 128W. ...DISCUSSION... A LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE HAS MOVED JUST W OF 140W TO NEAR 20N143W AND COVERS A LARGE PORTION OF E PACIFIC WITH DRY STABLE AIR/SUBSIDENCE NW OF A LINE FROM 32N130W TO 11N140W. A WELL- DEFINED DEEP LAYER CYCLONE NEAR THE CALIFORNIA/OREGON BORDER NEAR 42N124W. AN ASSOCIATED SHARP TROUGH EXTENDS SSW FROM THE PARENT CYCLONE ALONG 32N121W TO 19N127W. NWP MODEL SOLUTIONS DEEPEN THE TROUGH FURTHER S FORCING THE RIDGE OUT W OF 140W. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE/CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CONTINUES TO BE ADVECTED E OF TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE SW CONUS. ...ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...1022 MB WEAK HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 34N138W WITH A BROAD RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE TO JUST NW OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E. GENTLE TO MODERATE NE BREEZE N OF 12N W OF 125W WITH SEAS 5-6 FT IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE AS NINE- E TRACKS NORTHWARD WELL E OF THIS AREA. WEAK 1009 MB LOW PRES IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH SW-W OF NINE-E NEAR 14N121W. THIS LOW HAS STALLED AND REMAINS UNDER GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. WHILE THE LOW CONTINUES TO CARRY A LOW CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IT WILL NEVERTHELESS MAINTAINS FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS IN ITS SE QUADRANT EXTENDING THE FETCH REGION OF SW-S WINDS FUNNELING INTO NINE-E. AS NOTED ABOVE EXTENSIVE FETCH WILL CONTRIBUTE AND BUILD HIGHER SEAS THAN NORMAL HEADED TOWARDS BAJA CALIFORNIA. ANOTHER WEAK 1011 MB LOW IS ALSO EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 12N133W. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN SEA CURRENTLY ALONG 82W WILL MOVE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND GUATEMALA LATE FRI... SHIFTING WINDS TO THE N AND NE...AND FORCING FLOW THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AS FRESH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS. SEAS WILL BE NEAR 8 FT ALONG WITH THESE WINDS. THE WIND FLOW WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE SE WHEN WAVE MOVES W OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY LATE SAT. $$ LEWITSKY