000
AXPZ20 KNHC 221542
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
1605 UTC THU AUG 22 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1530 UTC.
                                    
...SPECIAL FEATURES... LOW PRES CENTER THAT WAS EMBEDDED WITHIN 
THE MONSOON TROUGH HAS BECOME TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E. AT 
1500 UTC THE CENTER OF T.D. NINE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 111.6W 
AND MOVING NNW OR 330 DEG AT 5 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 
30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. T.D. NINE-E HAS A VERY LARGE WIND FIELD AS 
MOST OF THE CIRCULATION REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON 
TROUGH. WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT EXTEND OUT 360 NM IN SE SEMICIRCLE 
OF THE T.D. S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH...WITH SEAS TO 11 FT. GOOD 
OUTFLOW ALOFT...PLENTY OF AVAILABLE TROPICAL MOISTURE AND WARM 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY TO 
A TROPICAL STORM IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SEE AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. LONG FETCH OF 
SW WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE T.D. ARE LIKELY TO BUILD SEAS MUCH 
HIGHER THAN USUAL WITH THE POTENTIAL TO HEAVILY IMPACT THE 
SOUTHERN HALF OF BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST...INCLUDING ITS GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA AS A LARGE S-SW SWELL IS FORCED TO FUNNEL INTO THE 
GULF.

..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
MONSOON TROUGH 10N85W TO 12N100W TO THE VICINITY OF T.D. NINE-E 
NEAR 17N111W TO LOW PRES 1008 MB NEAR 14N121W TO BEYOND 09N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
AXIS E OF 95W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 240 NM N OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 100W AND 108W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM S OF 
AXIS BETWEEN 119W AND 125W AND WITHIN 90 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 
130W AND 134W.

...DISCUSSION...
LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE HAS MOVED JUST W OF 140W TO NEAR 30N143W
AND COVERS A LARGE PORTION OF E PACIFIC WITH DRY STABLE AIR/SUBSIDENCE 
NW OF A LINE FROM 32N130W TO 10N140W. WELL-DEFINED DEEP LAYER CYCLONE 
NEAR 38N124W HAS AN ASSOCIATED SHARP TROUGH EXTENDING SSW ALONG 32N122W
TO 21N127W. NWP MODEL SOLUTIONS DEEPEN TROUGH FURTHER S FORCING RIDGE 
OUT W OF 140W. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE/CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CONTINUES TO BE 
ADVECTED E OF TROUGH INTO NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE 
SW CONUS.

...ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...
WEAK HIGH PRES CENTER 1022 MB NEAR 36N136W HAS BROAD RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
SE TO JUST N OF T.D. NINE-E. GENTLE TO MODERATE NE BREEZE N OF 12N W OF 125W
WITH SEAS 5-6 FT NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE AS T.S. NINE-E TRACKS NORTHWARD WELL 
E OF THAT AREA.   

SECOND LOW PRES CENTER NEAR 15N121W REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON
TROUGH HAS STALLED AND REMAINS UNDER GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. WHILE SYSTEM 
CARRIES A LOW CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IT MAINTAINS FRESH TO STRONG 
SW WINDS IN ITS SE QUADRANT EXTENDING THE FETCH OF SW WINDS FUNNELING INTO 
T.D. NINE-E. AS NOTED ABOVE EXTENSIVE FETCH CONTRIBUTES TO BUILD HIGHER SEAS 
THAN NORMAL HEADED TOWARDS BAJA CALIFORNIA.

TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 82W MOVE OVER YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE FRI 
SHIFTS WINDS TO THE N AND NE AND FORCING FLOW THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS
INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AS STRONG NLY WINDS. SEAS REMAIN UNDER
8 FT AS WIND SHIFT BACK TO THE SE WHEN WAVE MOVES W OF GULF LATE
SAT. 
 
$$
COBB