000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220957
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU AUG 22 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.
                                    
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
LOW PRES CENTER 1006 MB EMBEDDED IN MONSOON TROUGH AT 16N111W.
STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUT 360 NM IN SE 
SEMICIRCLE AND 60 NM IN NE QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 11 FT SEAS.
GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT...PLENTY OF AVAILABLE TROPICAL MOISTURE AND
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE GIVES SYSTEM A HIGH PROBABILITY OF
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE
NOW GETTING IN BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING ITS TRACK...INTENSITY
STILL REMAINS MORE UNCERTAIN...BUT ITS LONG STRETCH OF SW WINDS
ARE LIKELY TO BUILD SEAS MUCH HIGHER THAN USUAL AND IMPACT
HEAVILY SOUTHERN HALF OF BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST...INCLUDING ITS
GULF OF CALIFORNIA AS A LARGE S-SW SWELL IS FORCED TO FUNNEL
INTO THE GULF.

..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTEND FROM 10N85W TO 12N100W TO LOW PRES 1006 MB
AT 16N111W TO LOW PRES 1008 MB AT 15N121W TO BEYOND 09N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF AXIS TO 07N FROM 95W TO 108W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION S OF AXIS TO 10N
FROM 119W TO 125W AND WITHIN 90 NM S OF AXIS FROM 130W TO 134W.

...DISCUSSION...
LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE HAS MOVED JUST W OF 140W...BUT IT
STILL COVERS LARGE PORTION OF E PAC WITH DRY STABLE AIR MASS N OF
128W.  WELL-DEFINED DEEP LAYER CYCLONE AT 38N124W HAS TROUGH 
EXTEND S ALONG 125W TO 17N EXTENDING DRY SUBSIDING AIR TO 122W N
OF 20N.  MODEL SOLUTIONS DEEPENS TROUGH FURTHER S FORCING RIDGE 
OUT W OF 140W. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE/CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CONTINUE
TO BE ADVECTED E OF TROUGH INTO NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA 
PENINSULA.

...ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...
HIGH PRES CENTER 1022 MB AT 36N132W HAS BROAD RIDGE AXIS EXTEND
SE TO 24N118W.  GENTLE TO MODERATE NE BREEZE N OF 12N W OF 125W
WITH SEAS 5-6 FT NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH AS LOW PRES CENTERS
EMBEDDED IN MONSOON TROUGH DRIFT NORTHWARD KEEPING SLACK PRES
GRADIENT THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. .  

SECOND LOW PRES CENTER AT 15N121W EMBEDDED IN MONSOON TROUGH HAS
SLOWED ITS WESTERLY MOVE AND REMAINS UNDER GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT.  
WHILE SYSTEM CARRIES A LOW CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IT 
MAINTAINS FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS IN ITS SE QUADRANT STRETCHING
FETCH OF WINDS HEADING TO MAIN LOW PRES CENTER MENTIONED IN
FEATURES ABOVE.  LONGER FETCH CONTRIBUTES TO BUILD HIGHER SEAS 
THAN NORMAL HEADED TOWARDS BAJA CALIFORNIA.

TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 82W MOVE OVER YUCATAN PENINSULA
LATE FRI SHIFTING WIND NE AND FORCING IT ACROSS CHIVELAS PASS
INTO GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AS STRONG N BREEZE. SEAS REMAIN UNDER
8 FT AS WIND SHIFT BACK TO THE SE WHEN WAVE MOVES W OF GULF LATE
SAT. 
 
$$
WALLY BARNES