000
AXPZ20 KNHC 201528
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE AUG 20 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.
                                    
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
LOW PRES CENTER AT 14N109W IS IN PHASE WITH UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 19N112W. THIS IMPROVES UPPER LEVEL 
CONDITIONS FOR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. MODEL SOLUTIONS AGREE 
WITH TRACKING N-NW TOWARDS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE LOW 
COULD POSSIBLY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 
FEW DAYS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...          
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 9N83W TO 8N91W TO LOW PRES AT 14N109W 1009 
MB TO LOW PRES AT 16N122W 1009 MB TO 13N125W TO 12N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 300 NM S OF AXIS FROM 
93W-105W AND WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS FROM 110W-115W 
AND WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS FROM 122W-126W.

...DISCUSSION...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE W PORTION OF 
THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 21N137W WITH RIDGE N TO 32N134W. VERY 
DRY AND STABLE SUBSIDING AIR MASS N OF 15N W OF 125W AND N OF 
20N E OF 125W.  

WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION JUST N OF THE AREA 
NEAR 34N125W WITH A SHARP TROUGH EXTENDING S TO 16N126W. TROUGH 
CONTRIBUTES TO NORTHBOUND ADVECTION OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM 
MONSOON TROUGH. TROUGH ALSO BRINGING STRONG SW SHEAR OVER SECOND 
SURFACE LOW PRES CENTER AT 16N122W.

SURFACE HIGH PRES CENTER 1027 MB WELL NW OF DISCUSSION WITH WEAK 
PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA RESULTING IN LIGHTER THEN NORMAL 
NE TRADES W OF 120W. 

SECOND LOW PRES CENTER MENTIONED ABOVE WILL REMAIN NEARLY 
STATIONARY THROUGH THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS 
STRENGTHEN SYSTEM BUT IT IS SHORT-LIVED IF ANY AT ALL. 
 
$$
DGS