000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200347
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE AUG 20 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.
                                    
...SPECIAL FEATURE...                                            
FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LOW PRES CURRENTLY CENTERED 
NEAR 13N107W WILL DEVELOP IN THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 103W AND 
110W BY WED AND MOVE NNW ROUGHLY TOWARDS 20N110W THROUGH FRI. 
CONDITIONS ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR THIS TO OCCUR...AND THERE IS A 
MEDIUM PROBABILITY OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPING WITHIN THIS 
AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS DAYS...AND A HIGH PROBABILITY IN 
THE 3-5 DAYS. STEERING CURRENTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH 
DURING THIS TIME...TAKING THE SYSTEM NW TO NNW TOWARD SOUTHERN 
BAJA CALIFORNIA. MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE 
EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF THIS LOW PRES SYSTEM WITHIN THE MONSOON 
TROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...          
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 14N96W TO DEVELOPING LOW 
PRES NEAR 13N109W 1008 MB TO LOW PRES NEAR 15N120W 1008 MB TO 
11N127W TO 12N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH E OF 86W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM N AND 180 NM S 
OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 99W AND 122W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 
NM OF TROUGH W OF 124W.

...DISCUSSION...                                            
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 22N137W DRIFTING NW. UPPER 
LOW AT 34N124W MOVING WSW EXTENDS TUTT S TO 20N123W. DEEP LAYER 
TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM 09N TO 16N BETWEEN 97W AND 124W. CLUSTERS 
OF DEEP CONVECTION ERUPTING ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH W OF 124W. 
MODEST SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 
39N139W TO NEAR 22N118W. SW WINDS SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH 
ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS...WITH 
MULTIPLE WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGH 
LIKELY. GFS MODEL SHOWS A SECOND LOW FORMING WSW OF THE LOW 
MENTIONED ABOVE AS A SPECIAL FEATURE NEAR 13N119W. OTHER MODELS 
ARE LESS AGGRESSIVE...BUT ALL ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A SECOND LOW 
WEST OF THE PRIMARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE 
OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
 
$$
MUNDELL