000
AXPZ20 KNHC 192125
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON AUG 19 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.
                                    
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...          
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 14N96W TO LOW PRES NEAR 
13N107W 1008 MB TO LOW PRES NEAR 15N119W 1009 MB TO 11N127W TO 
12N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 75 
NM N AND 180 NM S OF TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 97W AND 106W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF TROUGH W OF 
122W.

...DISCUSSION...                                            
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 22N137W DRIFTING NW. UPPER 
LOW AT 34N124W MOVING WSW EXTENDS TUTT S TO 20N123W. DEEP LAYER 
TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM 09N TO 16N BETWEEN 97W AND 124W. CLUSTERS 
OF DEEP CONVECTION ERUPTING ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH W OF 124W. 

MODEST SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS SE TO NEAR 22N118W. FORECAST 
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A LOW PRES CENTER WILL DEVELOP IN 
THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 103W AND 110W WED AND MOVE NW ROUGHLY 
TOWARDS 20N110W THROUGH FRI. CONDITIONS ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR 
THIS TO OCCUR...AND THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE DEVELOPING WITHIN THIS AREA DURING THE 2-5 DAYS. THE 
STEERING CURRENTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH DURING THIS 
TIME...AND WOULD TAKE SUCH A SYSTEM NW TO NNW AND TOWARDS THE 
OFFSHORE WATERS OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. INTERESTS SHOULD 
FOLLOW THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF LOW PRES SYSTEMS WITHIN THE 
MONSOON TROUGH IN THIS GENESIS AREA THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
 
$$
MUNDELL