000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190958
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON AUG 19 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.
                                    
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...       
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 11N86W TO 13N96W TO LOW PRES AT 13N104W 1010
MB TO LOW PRES 1010 MB AT 14N117 TO 12N125W TO BEYOND 13N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 180 NM N OF AXIS E OF
101W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS FROM
114W TO 123W.

...DISCUSSION...                                              
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED AT 19N137W DRIFTING W
MAINTAINS DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS N OF 12N W OF 120W.  WELL
DEFINE CYCLONE ALOFT AT 34N124W HAS TROUGH EXTEND S17N121W.  E
SIDE OF TROUGH ADVECT PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS NORTHWARD TO BAJA CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN MEXICO. SECOND
ANTICYCLONE OVER SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA PROVIDES REGION
OF LIGHTER AND DIVERGENT WINDS ALOFT TO ALLOW LOW PRES AT 
13N104W TO INCREASE CONVECTION AND INTENSIFY ONCE IT GETS CLOSER
TO A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.  PROBABILITIES OF 
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT INCREASE AS LOW PRES DRIFT CLOSER TO
ANTICYCLONE.  GOOD AGREEMENT IN GUIDANCE WITH TIMING AND TRACK
OF LOW PRES...LESS AGREEMENT ON ITS INTENSITY.  

MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER IN SPINNING UP WESTERNMOST LOW PRES...
BUT IT IS MOVING AWAY FROM ANTICYCLONE...SO ITS PROBABILITIES
ARE LOWER.

...ELSEWHERE AT THE LOWER LEVELS...
HIGH PRES CENTER NW OF AREA AT 38N141W EXTENDS BROAD RIDGE SE TO
22N115W.  MODEST PRES GRADIENT S OF RIDGE SUPPORT MODERATE NE 
TRADES W OF 130W...BUT MAY DIMINISH AS RIDGE RETREATS W AND
WEAKENS BY WED.   
 
$$
WALLY BARNES