000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190357
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON AUG 19 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.
                                    
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...       
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 13N94W TO LOW PRES AT 
12N105W 1009 MB TO 13N112W TO 12N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 108W AND 
115W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF TROUGH W OF 
122W.

...DISCUSSION...                                              
BROAD ANTICYCLONE CENTERED AT 21N135W DRIFT W AND DOMINATES 
UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION IN NW PORTION. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IN 
SW PERIPHERY OF RIDGE HELPING SUSTAIN ACTIVE CONVECTION NEAR 
MONSOON TROUGH W OF 134W. MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW AT 22N117W WITH 
TROUGH S-SW TO 18N120W BEING STRETCHED NNE TO SSW...WITH 
MAJORITY OF ENTRAINED MOISTURE AND ENERGY BEING PULLED NWD IN 
RESPONSE TO DIGGING DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE ALONG COAST OF CENTRAL 
CALIFORNIA. THIS MID LATITUDE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG S-SW 
ALONG 125W BY LATE TUE...ALLOWING HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE CURRENTLY 
ACROSS W MEXICO TO SHIFT W. 

HIGH PRES CENTERED NW OF AREA NEAR 37N142W EXTENDS BROAD RIDGE 
SE TO NEAR 21N116W. MODEST PRES GRADIENT S OF RIDGE SUPPORTING 
ENE TRADES TO 20 KT...FROM 12N TO 16N W OF 130W. 

ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE E OF 110W PROVIDING CONDITIONALLY 
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS REGION. MODEL 
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FAVORABLE REGION DEVELOP WITHIN MONSOON TROUGH 
BETWEEN 100W AND 115W WED...YIELDING ONE OR MORE SURFACE LOWS... 
WHICH MAY DEVELOP INTO TROPICAL CYCLONE. REGION HAS HIGH CHANCE 
FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN NEXT 3-5 DAYS...BETWEEN WED AND FRI.
 
$$
MUNDELL