000
AXPZ20 KNHC 180355
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN AUG 18 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.
                                    
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...        
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N86W TO 11N102W TO A LOW PRES NEAR 
15N114W 1010 MB TO 12N120W TO 13N130W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO 
ITCZ TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
WITHIN 120 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 102W AND 110W...AND WITHIN 90 
NM N OF ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 133W AND 139W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                 
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 22N128W DRIFTING W. 
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE CENTERED E OF RIDGE NEAR 23N116W MOVING W. 
UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND LIFT NWD OVER THE NEXT FEW 
DAYS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW W OF CALIFORNIA.

1027 MB HIGH CENTERED NW OF AREA NEAR 37N146W EXTENDS BROAD WEAK 
RIDGE SE TO NEAR 20N113W. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE 
IN MONSOON TROUGH IS BECOMING MORE ACTIVE BETWEEN 100W AND 110W. 
WEAK LOW NEAR 15N114W IS NEARLY STATIONARY. MODERATE TRADE WINDS 
WITHIN 300 NM N OF CONVERGENCE ZONE W OF 120W. LITTLE CHANGE IS 
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS. BULK OF MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS 
TROPICAL LOW DEVELOPING NEAR 15N105W WED...INTENSIFYING SLOWLY 
AS IT MOVES NW TO AROUND 20N110W THROUGH FRI.
 
$$ 
MUNDELL