000
AXPZ20 KNHC 172135
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT AUG 17 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.
                                    
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...        
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N86W TO 11N102W TO A LOW PRES NEAR 
15N114W 1011 MB TO 12N120W TO 12N130W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO 
ITCZ TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 
90 NM N AND 120 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 97W AND 110W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM N OF CONVERGENCE ZONE 
AXIS BETWEEN 128W AND 138W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                 
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 22N126W DRIFTING W. 
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE CENTERED E OF RIDGE NEAR 22N115W MOVING W. 
UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND LIFT NWD OVER THE NEXT FEW 
DAYS IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LOW DIGGING SOUTHWARD OFF CALIFORNIA.

1027 MB HIGH CENTERED NW OF AREA NEAR 37N146W EXTENDS BROAD WEAK 
RIDGE SE TO NEAR 20N113W. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE 
IN MONSOON TROUGH IS BECOMING MORE ACTIVE BETWEEN 100W AND 110W. 
WEAK LOW NEAR 15N114W IS NEARLY STATIONARY. MODERATE TRADE WINDS 
WITHIN 300 NM N OF CONVERGENCE ZONE W OF 125W. LITTLE CHANGE IS 
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS. BULK OF MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS 
TROPICAL LOW DEVELOPING NEAR 15N105W WED...INTENSIFYING SLOWLY 
AS IT MOVES NW TO AROUND 20N110W THROUGH FRI.
 
$$ 
MUNDELL