000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170952
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT AUG 17 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.
                                    
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 15N106W TO 1011 MB LOW
PRES AT 15N114W TO 1012 MB LOW PRES AT 14N124W TO 13N128W THEN
ITCZ TO BEYOND 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
WITHIN 240 NM S OF AXIS E OF 104W.  SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS W OF 125W.

...DISCUSSION...
BROAD ANTICYCLONE AT 22N124W MAINTAINS DRY SUBSIDING AIR MASS
N OF 17N W OF 117W.  INVERTED TROUGH ALONG 113W N OF 16N ADVECTS
ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE TOWARDS BAJA CALIFORNIA ON ITS
EASTERN SIDE BUT ONLY A SMALL PORTION IS TURNING INTO A 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENT.  SMALL PATCH OF CONVECTION SW OF TIP
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA UNDER MODERATE DIVERGENCE ALOFT. PLENTY OF
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ AXES...BUT
NEITHER OF EMBEDDED LOW PRES CENTERS HAVE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS 
ALOFT TO ENHANCE ITS STRENGTHENING. 
 
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS E-SE FROM 1027 MB HIGH PRES ANCHOR AT
36N158W.  RIDGE EXTEND SE TO 21N111W KEEPING LIGHT TO MODERATE
NE TRADES FROM 10N TO 25N W OF 125W AND SEAS BELOW 8 FT.  MODEL
GUIDANCE SOLUTION AGREE ON LITTLE CHANGE TO THIS SCENARIO 
THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD.

WEAK LOW PRES CENTER EMBEDDED WITHIN MONSOON TROUGH AT 15N114W
DRIFTING W AND SECOND ONE AT 14N124W.  MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
LITTLE AND SLOW DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...POSSIBLE DURING NEXT 3-5
DAYS AS UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT APPEARS UNFAVORABLE.  BOTH
SYSTEMS ARE GIVEN A LOW PROBABILITY OF DEVELOPMENT WITHIN NEXT
48 HOURS BY NHC.

$$
WALLY BARNES