000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170357
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT AUG 17 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.
                                    
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N86W TO 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR 
15N115W TO 12N129W...THEN ITCZ TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 90W AND 96W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE TROUGH 
BETWEEN 96W AND 102W...AS WELL AS BETWEEN 124W AND 128W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                 
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS E-SE FROM 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N 
138W TO 18N112W. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND 
LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE ZONE IS MAINTAINING 
MODERATE ENE TRADE WINDS WITHIN 300 TO 450 NM N OF ITCZ AXIS. 
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. SEA HEIGHTS ARE 
LESS THAN 8 FT ACROSS THE ENTIRE DISCUSSION AREA. SEAS ARE 
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH SUN...THEN 
REMAIN 5 TO 6 FT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH WED. 

WEAK LOW PRES CENTER EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 
15N115W DRIFTING W. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME DEVELOPMENT IS 
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 3-5 DAYS...BUT UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT 
APPEARS GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE. SYSTEM IS RATED LOW PROBABILITY 
OF DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS BY NHC.

$$
MUNDELL