000
AXPZ20 KNHC 162130
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI AUG 16 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.
                                    
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N86W TO 1011 MB LOW PRES NEAR 
14N114W TO 13N123W TO 10N130W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 96W AND 107W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                 
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS E-SE FROM 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N 
138W TO 18N112W. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND 
LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE ZONE IS MAINTAINING 
MODERATE ENE TRADE WINDS WITHIN 450 NM N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH 
AXIS. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. SEA HEIGHTS 
ARE LESS THAN 8 FT ACROSS THE ENTIRE DISCUSSION AREA...AND SEAS 
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH SUN...AND 
REMAIN 5 TO 6 FT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH WED. 

WEAK LOW PRES CENTER EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 
14N114W DRIFTING W. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME DEVELOPMENT IS 
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 3-5 DAYS...BUT UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT 
APPEARS GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE. SYSTEM IS RATED LOW PROBABILITY 
OF DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS BY NHC.

$$
MUNDELL