000
AXPZ20 KNHC 161522
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI AUG 16 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.
                                    
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N86W TO 1010 MB LOW PRES AT 14N114W TO 
10N125W. ITCZ 10N125W TO 07N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION FROM 5W-8W E OF 88W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
WITHIN 220 NM N AND 180 NM S OF AXIS FROM 94W-104W AND FROM
10N-17N BETWEEN 107W-123W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                                 
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA EXTENDS FROM 32N134W TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
NEAR 25N140W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AIR AT THE 
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS N OF N OF 20N W OF 115W. A LARGE 
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER NW MEXICO 
NEAR 29N110W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SW OF THE ANTICYCLONE TO 
15N135W. AN INVERTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SW OF THE RIDGE FROM 
W CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 25N106W TO CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT 
21N109W. IN THE DEEP TROPICS AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
IS CENTERED NEAR 9N138W. DEEP LAYER TROPICAL MOISTURE IS FROM 9N-
18N BETWEEN 132W-115W AND FROM 9N-20N E OF 115W.  

WEAK LOW PRES CENTER 1010 MB ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AT 14N114W 
DRIFTING W. MODEL GUIDANCE HINT AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL 
CHARACTERISTICS...BUT UPPER ENVIRONMENT MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY 
FAVORABLE. SYSTEM IS GIVEN A LOW PROBABILITY OF DEVELOPMENT 
WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS BY NHC. OTHERWISE SURFACE RIDGE IS N OF 
15N W OF 120W. SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA ARE 15 KT OR LESS 
WITH SEAS 7 FT OR LESS.

$$
DGS