000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160950
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI AUG 16 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.
                                      
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 11N86W TO 11N102W TO 1010 MB LOW PRES AT 
13N113W TO 08N134W THEN ITCZ TO 07N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM S OF AXIS FROM 93W TO
110W AND WITHIN 150 NM N OF AXIS FROM 110W TO 130W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                                 
DEEP LAYER TROUGH ACROSS NW PORTION OF BASIN FROM 32N133W TO
BEYOND 25N140W MAINTAINS VERY DRY AIR MASS N OF 15N W OF 130W.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED BY ANTICYCLONE AT 29N109W EXTEND
MODERATELY DRY AREA FURTHER E TO 114W N OF 20N.  DEVELOPING
CYCLONE AT 21N108W COMBINES WITH ANTICYCLONE TO ENHANCE AREA OF
MODERATE DIVERGENCE OVER GULF OF CALIFORNIA WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION. 

...AT THE LOWER LEVELS...
WEAK LOW PRES CENTER 1010 MB AT 13N113W DRIFTS W SURROUNDED BY
ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE.
MODEL GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS HINT AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS...BUT UPPER ENVIRONMENT MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY
FAVORABLE.  SYSTEM IS GIVEN A LOW PROBABILITY OF DEVELOPMENT
WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS BY NHC. 

WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES NW CORNER OF BASIN...BUT STALLS AND
DISSIPATES WITHIN NEXT 48 HOURS.  NE TRADES REMAIN A LIGHT TO 
MODERATE BREEZE WITH SEAS UNDER 8 FT THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD.

$$
WALLY BARNES