000
AXPZ20 KNHC 141505
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED AUG 14 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.
                                      
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 11N95W TO A 1008 MB 
LOW AT 12N106W TO 1008 MB LOW AT 08N119W TO 06N127W. ITCZ AXIS 
EXTENDS FROM 06N127W TO A 1008 MB LOW AT 13N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS WITHIN 180 NM OF 
TROUGH BETWEEN 115W AND 125W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
EXISTS WITHIN 180 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 100W AND 110W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                 

A WEAK 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH IS ANALYZED AT 30N134W WITH AN 
ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD TO 23N118W.  THE WEAK 
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND A TROUGH OVER MEXICO 
AND THE MONSOON TROUGH IS PRODUCING IN GENERAL WEAK TRADEWINDS 
BELOW OUR 25 KT THRESHOLD AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT THRESHOLD. 

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT 13N140W COMBINED WITH THE 
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH ARE COMBINING TO PRODUCE NE TO E 
WINDS OF 20-25 KT AND SEAS 8-9 FT W OF 135W ON THE NORTH SIDE OF 
THE LOW.  ASSOCIATED WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE BELOW ADVISORY 
CRITERIA THURSDAY MORNING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD OUT OF 
OUR FORECAST WATERS.

A WEAK GAP WIND EVENT IS OCCURRING THIS MORNING ALONG THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC.  AN 0354 UTC ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED 
25 KT N TO NE WINDS.  THE FORCING FROM THIS IS A TROPICAL 
DISTURBANCE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...WHICH IS INDUCING SOME 
NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CHIVELA PASS MEXICO.  AS THE 
DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE GULF OF 
MEXICO...FORCING OF THIS GAP WIND EVENT SHOULD RELAX BY TONIGHT.

NO LONG-PERIOD SWELL OF SIGNIFICANCE ARE OCCURRING NOW OR 
ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR IN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

OVERALL...THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC IS RELATIVELY QUIET FOR BEING IN 
THE PEAK OF HURRICANE SEASON.

$$ 
LANDSEA