000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140248
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED AUG 14 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0245 UTC.
                                      
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 10N111W TO 06N120W TO 
07N127W...THEN ITCZ TO 12N135W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. 

...DISCUSSION...                                                 
 
BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS W-SW FROM NORTHERN MEXICO TO 22N140W. 
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS TRAPPED WELL S OF THE RIDGE S OF 18N 
EXCEPT FOR MID-LEVEL MOISTURE EXTRUSION ALONG 115W NORTHWARD TO 
CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA. 

A 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH IS ANALYZED NEAR 31N135W WITH A RIDGE 
EXTENDING SE TO 23N118W. WEAK PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH 
AND A TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN MEXICO IS PRODUCING NNW WINDS TO 20 
KT ALONG THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH SEAS TO 4-5 FT. THE 
HIGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS IT SHIFTS W-SW TO NEAR 
29N139W WED.
 
PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE CONVERGENCE ZONE BOUNDARY 
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT FRESH TRADE WINDS WITHIN 450-500 NM N OF A 
LINE FROM 18N122W TO 12N140W...WITH HIGHEST WINDS IN THE N SEMI-
CIRCLE OF A WEAK LOW NEAR 13N137W. ANIMATED VISUAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY SHOWS MULTIPLE WEAK MID-LEVEL VORTICES ALONG A TROUGH 
AXIS EXTENDING FROM 12N138W TO 17N134W. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED 
WITH THIS DISTURBANCE HAS STEADILY BECOME MORE DISORGANIZED OVER 
THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WESTWARD 
AND MOVE W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA BY EARLY THU.

$$ 
MUNDELL