000
AXPZ20 KNHC 120906
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON AUG 12 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...       

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09.5N85W TO 10N110W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 
150 NM N OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 96W AND 100W. 

...DISCUSSION...

A WEAK 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 30N138W WITH A RIDGE 
EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 19N117W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS LIMITED TO E 
OF 110W WITH MODERATE TO FRESH SW MONSOONAL WINDS NOTED S OF THE 
TROUGH AXIS. TWO LOW PRESSURE CENTERS ARE LOCATED W OF 
110W...ONE CENTERED NEAR 13.5N124W AND THE OTHER CENTERED NEAR 
13N138W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE LOW 
PRESSURE CENTERS IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES GENERALLY 
N AND NW OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTERS...AND MODERATE TO FRESH 
TRADES ELSEWHERE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A 
TROUGH OVER MEXICO IS MAINTAINING MODERATE TO FRESH NW TO N 
WINDS OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AS DEPICTED BY THE LATEST 
ASCAT PASS. 

THE WESTERNMOST SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO SHIFT W OF THE AREA 
TODAY WITH ASSOCIATED WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE FORECAST AREA 
DECREASING BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BY TUE MORNING. THE 
EASTERNMOST LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL CONTINUE ON A WESTWARD 
TRACK OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WITH 
SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT WILL PREVAIL TO THE N OF THIS LOW OVER 
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY 
CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW...AND THERE 
REMAINS A LOW CHANCE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP INTO A 
TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ELSEWHERE OVER THE 
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN 
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 

$$ 
AL