000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110908
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
1005 UTC SUN AUG 11 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.
                       
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO 09N106W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 
150 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 86W AND 95W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N OF TROUGH 
BETWEEN 95W AND 106W.

...DISCUSSION... 

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OF 1022 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 31N140W WITH 
RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 22N113W. THE MONSOON TROUGH HAS 
BROKEN DOWN OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH TWO 
LOW PRESSURE CENTERS...ONE CENTERED NEAR 13.5N120W AND THE OTHER 
CENTERED NEAR 12N136W. BOTH SYSTEMS CURRENTLY HAVE A LOW 
PROBABILITY OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE 
NEXT 48 HOURS AS THEY CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD. THE WESTERN 
MOST LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST OF THE AREA BY 
MONDAY MORNING. WHILE THERE IS LOW PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL 
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT FOR THE EASTERN MOST SYSTEM...THERE IS A 
MEDIUM CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE 
NEXT 5 DAYS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TWO LOW 
PRESSURE CENTERS IS MAINTAINING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES NORTH 
OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTERS...AND STRONG TRADEWINDS N OF THE 
WESTERN MOST LOW. ASIDE FROM WINDS AND SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH BOTH 
LOW PRESSURE CENTERS...WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE 
FORECAST AREA ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA 
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
 
$$ 
AL