000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100905
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
1005 UTC SAT AUG 10 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...   

A LOW PRESSURE CENTER 1008 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 13N118W AND IS 
MOVING W AT 10 KT. THE LOW IS APPROACHING A REGION OF MODERATE 
EASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR WHILE CONTINUING OVER WARM SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURE AND INTO A MOIST ATMOSPHERE. THE ENVIRONMENT IS 
MODERATELY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND IT CURRENTLY HAS A 
MEDIUM CHANCE TO DEVELOP INTO TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48 
HOURS. 
                       
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...        

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 15N107W TO 1008 MB LOW 
PRES AT 13N118W TO 13N127W TO LOW PRES 1009 MB AT 11N132W TO 
09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED 
WITHIN 180 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 90W AND 98W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 
118W TO 123W. 

...DISCUSSION... 

A RELATIVELY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OF 1022 MB IS CENTERED W OF THE 
AREA NEAR 30N150W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 21N114W. THE 
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AREA WITH TWO EMBEDDED LOW 
PRESSURE CENTERS. THE FIRST LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS MENTIONED IN 
THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS 
NEAR 11N132W. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS A LOW CHANCE TO 
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS..AND IS 
EXPECTED TO CROSS W OF 140W BY SUN NIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND THE MONSOON TROUGH IS 
MAINTAINING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS BELOW ADVISORY 
CRITERIA. ASIDE FROM WINDS AND SEAS ASSOCIATED TO THE TWO LOW 
PRESSURE CENTERS...WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE 
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE NEXT 
48 HOURS. 

$$ 
AL