000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090902
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
1005 UTC FRI AUG 09 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...   
       
.DEVELOPING LOW PRES CENTERED NEAR 11N112 WITH ESTIMATED SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE OF 1008 MB IS SHIFTING W NEAR 10 KT. THIS AREA OF 
LOW PRESSURE HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT SHIFTS W. 
                       
HURRICANE HENRIETTE HAS MOVED W OF THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS AND 
SEAS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND ARE 
EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...   
     
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N82W TO 07N86W TO 13.5N106W TO 
LOW PRES NEAR 12N113W 1008 MB TO 11N115W TO 11N124W TO LOW PRES 
NEAR 09N130W 1011 MB TO 08N136W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 90W AND 100W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 210 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 112W AND 
120W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS 
NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N AND 90 NM S OF AXIS W OF 128W.

...DISCUSSION...  

HIGH PRESSURE 1025 MB IS CENTERED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 31N146W 
WITH RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 20N113W. THERE ARE TWO LOW 
PRESSURE CENTERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH. ONE OF THE 
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED WAS MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES 
ABOVE. THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS CENTERED NEAR 10N130W. 
THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF 
THIS SYSTEM AND THERE IS CURRENTLY A LOW CHANCE OF THIS LOW TO 
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. OTHER 
THAN THESE AREAS...WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE FORECAST AREA ARE 
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE NEXT 48 
HOURS. 
 
$$
AL