000 AXPZ20 KNHC 090312 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC FRI AUG 09 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0215 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE HENRIETTE IS CENTERED NEAR 17.0N 140.4W AT 0300 UTC... OR ABOUT 885 NM ESE OF HILO HAWAII...MOVING W OR 265 DEG AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. HENRIETTE REMAINS A SMALL CYCLONE...WITH THE DISTINCT EYE VISIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN SATELLITE IMAGERY HAVING FILLED IN. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH HENRIETTE CONTINUES TO ERODE ACROSS SE PORTIONS. NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 60 NM NW AND 20 NM SE SEMICIRCLES. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM NW AND 30 NM SE SEMICIRCLES. HENRIETTE IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TO TAKE A MORE W-SW MOTION LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THIS MOTION...AT AN ACCELERATED SPEED...OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE UNFAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AND A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS AGAIN FORECAST. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. .DEVELOPING LOW PRES CENTERED NEAR 11N111W ESTIMATED AT 1008 MB IS SHIFTING W NEAR 10 KT THIS EVENING. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW CONTINUES TO IMPROVE TO THE NW OF THE BROAD CIRCULATION...AS WELL AS TO THE NE OF THE CENTER DUE TO INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER LOW TO THE NE NEAR 12.5N100W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS. INTERACTION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE NE WITH THIS ELONGATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION COULD ALLOW THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS...AND POTENTIALLY COULD DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE TO DEVELOP IN A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND IT SHIFTS W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W TO 10N86W TO 08N90W TO 12N101W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N111W 1008 MB TO 11N122W TO 09.5N130W TO 15N136W...WHERE IT TERMINATES. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED FROM 07N TO 15N BETWEEN 102W AND 116W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 150 NM N AND 180 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 116W AND 132W...EXCEPT WITHIN 360 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 132W AND 138W. ...DISCUSSION... E OF 110W...MONSOONAL FLOW DOMINATES THE REGION S OF THE TROUGH AND AREAS TO THE W TO SW...WITH S TO SW WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS REMAIN AT 7 FT OR LESS ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. W OF 110W...THE MAIN FEATURE IS HURRICANE HENRIETTE...WHICH HAS JUST CROSSED 140W IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL CYCLONE DISCUSSION ON HENRIETTE UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCDEP3/WTPZ43 KNHC FOR RELATED DETAILS ABOUT THIS CYCLONE. EXPECT SWELL RELATED TO HENRIETTE OF GREATER THAN 8 FT GENERALLY FROM 14N TO 22N W OF 135W TONIGHT TO SHIFT W OF ABOUT 137W FRI BEFORE SUBSIDING TO LESS 8 FT THAN DURING FRI AFTERNOON. A SECOND BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ABOUT THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 123W AND 135W...WITH ABUNDANT CONVECTION OCCURRING S OF THE TROUGH. ELSEWHERE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A RATHER LARGE AREA OF BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THIS PORTION OF THE AREA W OF 120W. TWO ANTICYCLONES ARE OBSERVED...ONE AT 20N126W...THE OTHER JUST W OF HENRIETTE AT 18N142W. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH STRETCHES INTO THE AREA THROUGH 32N124W AND TO NEAR 30N140W BEFORE IT BECOMES DIFFUSE. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1025 MB HIGHS CENTERED NEAR 31N145W...AND THE SECOND WELL N OF THE AREA AT 43N145W. THE HIGHS ARE BISECTED BY A COLD FRONT SUPPORTED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH. THE COLD FRONT IS IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO THE ESE JUST BRUSHING THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ STRIPLING