000 AXPZ20 KNHC 070303 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC WED AUG 07 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE HENRIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 133.1W AT 0300 UTC MOVING WNW OR 300 DEG AT 9 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 80 KT GUSTS TO 100 KT. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 981 MB. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 60 NM NW AND 30 NM SE SEMICIRCLES. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM NW AND 150 NM SE SEMICIRCLES...EXCEPT 75 NM SW QUADRANT. AN EYE FEATURE ASSOCIATED WITH HENRIETTE WAS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IS NOT LONGER EVIDENT THIS EVENING. LATE AFTERNOON VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTED SOME REORGANIZATION OF THE INNER CORE OF HENRIETTE...BUT WAS NOT AS OBVIOUS IN IR IMAGERY. CONVECTION HAS SINCE FLARED NEAR THE CENTER WITH CLOUD TOPS COOLING...AND IT IS ASSUMED THAT HENRIETTE HAS MAINTAINED ITS RECENT INTENSITY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SOME MODEST ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES MOVING NW...BEFORE COOLER SST'S AND DRIER AIR CONTRIBUTE TO A WEAKENING TREND. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARDS THE W IS EXPECTED AFTER 24 HOURS. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 10N74W TO 10N86W TO 08.5N92W TO 11N118W TO 14N123W...WHERE IT TERMINATES. THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF HENRIETTE NEAR 13.5N136W AND EXTENDS W TO NEAR 13.5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 150 NM S OF TROUGH E OF 82W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 360 NM N AND 150 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 92W AND 119W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 240 NM N AND 120 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 105W AND 117W. ...DISCUSSION... E OF 110W...THE TRAILING EDGE OF AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM E TO W ALONG 14N ACROSS FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ACROSS NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA TO A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE AT 14N90W. A MIDDLE LEVEL JET INDUCED IN THE FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO HAS HELPED TO TRIGGER CLUSTERS OF WWD PROPAGATING CONVECTION FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 96W AND 106W...AND BEYOND TO NEAR 118W. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATED A 30-35 KT LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERIC ELY JET IN THIS REGION...WHICH HELPS TO EXPLAIN THE FAST MOTION WWD OF THE CONVECTION TODAY. AFTERNOON SCATTEROMETER PASSES ALSO SHOWED A ZONE OF 20-25 KT NON RAIN FLAGGED WINDS AT THE SURFACE. THIS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT QUICKLY WWD OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING IN AREAL COVERAGE. OTHERWISE...MONSOONAL FLOW DOMINATES THE REGION S OF THE TROUGH...WITH S TO SW WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 20 KT AS DEPICTED BY RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES. ALTIMETER PASSES INDICATE SEAS ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN 7 FT ACROSS THE AREA E OF 110W. W OF 110W...THE MAIN STORY IS HURRICANE HENRIETTE. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL CYCLONE DISCUSSION ON HENRIETTE UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCDEP3/WTPZ43 KNHC FOR MORE IN DEPTH DISCUSSION. EXPECT SWELL RELATED TO HENRIETTE OF GREATER THAN 8 FT FROM 14N TO 22N W OF 128W OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WEST OF HENRIETTE...T.D. GIL CONTINUES TO MOVE W OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE...WEAK HIGH PRES IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA ALONG 32N. LOOKING AHEAD...A DEEP LAYER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 25N E OF 130W LATER IN THE WEEK. HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO 20 KT OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA BY FRI. $$ STRIPLING