000
AXPZ20 KNHC 062202
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
2205 UTC TUE AUG 06 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 
HURRICANE HENRIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 132.3W AT 2100 UTC 
MOVING NW OR 305 DEG AT 9 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 80 KT 
GUSTS TO 100 KT. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 984 
MB. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 30 
NM E AND 60 NM W SEMICIRCLES. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM NW AND 120 NM SE 
SEMICIRCLES. HENRIETTE APPEARS TO HAVE STRENGTHENED IN THE PAST 
12 HOURS OR SO AS DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER HAS CONTRACTED 
AND MORNING MICROWAVE PASSES SUGGESTED A DEVELOPING EYE...WHICH 
IS NOW BECOMING MORE APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. MODEST WLY 
SHEAR ACROSS THE N SEMICIRCLE HAS ENHANCED OUTFLOW THERE. 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR 
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS AS IT 
CONTINUES MOVING NW...BEFORE COOLER SST'S AND DRIER AIR 
CONTRIBUTE TO A WEAKENING TREND. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARDS THE W IS 
EXPECTED AFTER 24 HOURS. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 08.5N75W TO 10N85W TO 
09.5N100W TO 11N106W TO 10N112W TO 11N123W...WHERE IT 
TERMINATES. THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF HENRIETTE NEAR 13N136W AND 
EXTENDS W TO NEAR 13.5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 00 NM N AND 120 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 
88W AND 104W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
NOTED WITHIN 240 NM N AND 120 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 105W AND 
117W.

...DISCUSSION...
E OF 110W...THE TRAILING EDGE OF AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM E 
TO W ALONG 14N ACROSS FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ACROSS NORTHERN 
CENTRAL AMERICA TO A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE AT 14.5N89W. A 
LARGE DEFORMATION ZONE IN THE FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND 
AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO IS AIDING TO  
SUPPORT A LARGE AREA OF WWD PROPAGATING CONVECTION FROM 12N TO 
15.5N BETWEEN 94W AND 103W. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATED A 30-
35 KT LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERIC ELY JET IN THIS REGION...WHICH IS 
THE LIKELY TRIGGER MECHANISM...AND EXPLAINS TO FAST MOTION WWD. 
AFTERNOON ASCAT PASSES ALSO SHOWED A ZONE OF 20-25 KT NON RAIN 
FLAGGED WINDS AT THE SURFACE. CONVECTION ALSO CONTINUES OFF THE 
COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 04.5N TO 07.5N E OF 81W. 
OTHERWISE...MONSOONAL FLOW DOMINATES THE REGION S OF THE 
TROUGH...WITH S TO SW WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 20 KT AS 
DEPICTED BY RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES. ALTIMETER PASSES 
INDICATE SEAS ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN 7 FT ACROSS THE AREA E OF 
110W.

W OF 110W...THE MAIN STORY IS HURRICANE HENRIETTE. PLEASE SEE 
THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL CYCLONE DISCUSSION ON HENRIETTE UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCDEP3/WTPZ43 KNHC FOR MORE IN DEPTH 
DISCUSSION. EXPECT SWELL RELATED TO HENRIETTE OF GREATER THAN 8 
FT FROM 14N TO 22N W OF 128W OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WEST 
OF HENRIETTE...T.S. GIL CONTINUES TO MOVE W OF THE AREA. 

LOOKING AHEAD...A DEEP LAYER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS 
N OF 25N E OF 130W LATER IN THE WEEK. HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND 
THE TROUGH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO 20 KT OFF THE COAST OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA BY FRI.

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STRIPLING