000
AXPZ20 KNHC 061607
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
1605 UTC TUE AUG 06 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
HURRICANE HENRIETTE AT 14.2N 131.5W AT 1500 UTC WITH MINIMUM 
CENTRAL PRES 986 MB AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 70 GUSTS TO 85 KT 
MOVING NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM NE AND 60 NM SW SEMICIRCLES. HENRIETTE 
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN SOME MORE AS SYSTEM MOVES W OVER WARM SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. SEE 
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 11N105W TO 13N125W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG IS NOTED WITHIN 240 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 95W AND 
100W.

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 110W...THE TRAILING EDGE OF AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM E 
TO W ALONG 14N ACROSS FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS NORTHERN CENTRAL 
AMERICA TO 95W. A LARGE DEFORMATION IN THE FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN 
THIS TROUGH AND AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF OF 
MEXICO IS SUPPORTING A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION MAINLY N OF 09N 
BETWEEN 95W AND 100W...AIDED IN PART BY DIURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. 
EARLY MORNING CONVECTION ALSO FLARED OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA 
FROM 03N TO 07N E OF 80W. AN OSCAT PASS FROM 06 UTC ALONG WITH 
TOGA-TAO BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATED SW FLOW INTO THE MONSOON 
TROUGH AROUND 15 TO 20 KT BETWEEN 95W AND 110W. WHILE THIS IS 
CURRENTLY NOT SUPPORTING ANY LARGE AREAS OF CONVECTION ALONG THE 
MONSOON TROUGH...SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT 
TONIGHT DUE THE PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MODEST 
SUPPORT ALOFT. VARIOUS ALTIMETER PASSES INDICATE SEAS ARE 
GENERALLY LESS THAN 7 FT ACROSS THE AREA E OF 110W...ALTHOUGH 
THE MWW3 WAVE MODEL INITIALIZED WITH 7 FT SEAS NEAR THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO...WHERE GAP WINDS TO 20 KT WERE LIKELY EARLIER THIS 
MORNING.

W OF 110W...THE MAIN STORY IS THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF 
HURRICANE HENRIETTE. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL CYCLONE 
DISCUSSION ON HENRIETTE UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCDEP3/WTPZ43 
KNHC FOR MORE IN DEPTH DISCUSSION THIS HURRICANE. EXPECT SWELL 
RELATED TO HENRIETTE OF GREATER THAN 8 FT FROM 14N TO 22N W OF 
128W OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WEST OF HENRIETTE...T.S. GIL 
CONTINUES TO MOVE W OF THE AREA. RESIDUAL SWELL TO 8 FT RELATED 
TO GIL WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS FROM 14N TO 16N 
W OF 139W.

LOOKING AHEAD...A DEEP LAYER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS 
N OF 25N E OF 130W LATER IN THE WEEK. HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND 
THE TROUGH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO 20 KT OFF THE COAST OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA BY FRI.

$$
CHRISTENSEN