000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030917
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
1005 UTC SAT AUG 03 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM GIL NEAR 14.9N 131.4W AT 0900 UTC MOVING W OR 275 
DEG AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRES 999 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WIND 50 GUSTS TO 60 KT. GIL CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM N 
SEMICIRCLE AND 30 NM S SEMICIRCLE. FORECAST CALLS FOR CONTINUED 
WEAKENING AS GIL MOVES INTO PROGRESSIVELY INCREASING SHEAR AND 
COOLER WATERS. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO 
HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

JUST E OF GIL...LOW PRES AT 13N121W 1009 MB. ENVIRONMENTAL 
CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT SO SYSTEM 
HAS A MEDIUM...40 PERCENT...CHANCE OF STRENGTHENING INTO A 
TROPICAL CYCLONE. MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS CIRCULATION GOING FOR 
NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT MAINTAIN SURFACE WINDS BELOW TROPICAL STORM 
THRESHOLD.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 08N94W TO 1009 MB LOW PRES 
AT 13N120W.  ITCZ  FROM 13N133W TO BEYOND 12N140W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 240 NM S OF AXIS FROM 104W TO 118W
THEN WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS TO BEYOND 140W. 

...DISCUSSION...
SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA FROM 32N131W TO 29N140W. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED SW OF TROPICAL STORM GIL NEAR 
15N134W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR 
AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS N OF 20N W OF 120W. AN 
ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS SW OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA NEAR 22N115W.

SURFACE RIDGE IS N OF TROPICAL STORM GIL AND THE LOW N OF 20N W 
OF 117W.

$$ 
DGS