000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020912
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
1005 UTC FRI AUG 02 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
HURRICANE GIL AT 14.6N 127.3W AT 0900 UTC  MOVING W OR 275 DEG 
AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 75 KT GUSTS TO 90 KT AND 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES 985 MB. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 90 NM THE CENTER. GIL REMAINS UNDER FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL 
CONDITIONS AS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ENHANCES HURRICANE 
OUTFLOW. NEVERTHELESS GIL WESTWARD TRACK WILL BRING IT CLOSER TO 
A REGION OF INCREASING SW SHEAR. FORECAST KEEPS GIL A HURRICANE 
THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS THEN START TO WEAKEN. SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTNT22 KNHC 
FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

LOW PRES CENTER AT 13N118W MOVING W AT 8 KT FOLLOWS IN WAKE OF 
GIL. WHILE UPPER ENVIRONMENT IS SIMILAR TO THE ONE OVER GIL DUE 
TO THEIR PROXIMITY...OUTFLOW FROM GIL SEEM TO BE DISRUPTIVE AND 
DOES NOT ALLOW ANY SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION OF LOW PRES 
CENTER. ALTHOUGH THERE IS PROBABILITY OF IT BECOMING A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. CURRENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM OVER SW SEMICIRCLE. 
 
SECOND LOW PRES CENTER NEAR 12N137W 1009 MB. NUMEROUS MODERATE 
TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 134W AND 139W. WHILE 
NOT ENTIRELY IN A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...SYSTEM HAS 
ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND WARM SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES TO ENHANCE ITS DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A CHANCE THE 
LOW MAY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE...HOWEVER IT WILL LIKELY 
BE W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 9N84W TO 8N90W TO 1009 MB LOW PRES AT 
13N118W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 10N-13N 
BETWEEN 134W-139W.

...DISCUSSION...                                              
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 
30N133W TO 29N140W. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER HURRICANE GIL NEAR 
14N127W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR 
AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS N OF 20N W OF 120W. ANOTHER 
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS SW OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 
23N118W.

SURFACE RIDGE IS N OF HURRICANE GIL AND THE LOWS N OF 20N W OF 
117W.

$$ 
DGS