000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280245
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
0405 UTC SUN JUL 28 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 08N103W TO LOW 
PRES NEAR 10N123W 1010 MB TO 08N126W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 
08N126W TO 12N137W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 
10N BETWEEN 84W AND 88W...FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 93W AND 98W... 
FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 101W AND 120W...AND ALSO WITHIN 150 NM S 
OF A LINE FROM 12N115W TO 15N135W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                

TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE W OF THE AREA CENTERED NEAR 19.0N 143.2W 
AT 28/0300 UTC OR 775 MILES E OF HILO HAWAII MOVING W AT 17 KT. 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEE LATEST CPHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HFOTCMCP1/WTPA21 PHFO 
FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM 
IN THE E QUADRANT AND ALSO BETWEEN 240 NM AND 300 NM IN THE NE 
QUADRANT...OVER THE DISCUSSION WATERS. FLOSSIE WILL CONTINUE TO 
MOVE AWAY FROM THE DISCUSSION WATERS WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING 
AS IT ENCOUNTERS SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ALOFT...MARGINAL SSTS...AND 
SOME DRY AIR INTRUSION. ANY ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS WILL SHIFT W 
OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS BY SUN NIGHT...WITH FLOSSIE FORECAST TO 
BE NEAR THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII IN 54-66 HOURS. INTERESTS IN 
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR FLOSSIE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

1034 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS  
NEAR 49N139W. A RIDGE EXTENDS TO THE S-SW TO 32N140W THEN SE TO 
20N111W WITH TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE TO THE S-SW OF THE RIDGE. 
OUTSIDE OF FLOSSIE...MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS DOMINATE THE 
WATERS N OF 10N W OF 110W ALONG WITH 4-7 FT SEAS. LITTLE CHANGE 
ACROSS THIS REGION IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER AN AREA OF 8 FT OR 
GREATER SEAS GENERATED BY A GALE W OF THE REDWOOD COAST OF 
CALIFORNIA WILL PUSH TO 30N BY MON AFTERNOON/EVENING. 

A WEAK 1010 MB SURFACE LOW IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH 
NEAR 10N123W WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE IMMEDIATE 
VICINITY. NO DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS ANTICIPATED WITH 
DISSIPATION LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 8-
9 FT CONTINUE ACROSS THE DEEP TROPICS S OF A LINE FROM 05N135W 
TO 05N134W TO 00N100W. THE AFFECTED AREA IS FORECAST TO SHIFT N-
NE REACHING 10N BETWEEN ROUGHLY 91W AND 120W BY 24 HOURS...THEN 
WILL PRIMARILY BE ACROSS THE WATERS NE OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS 
S OF 07N BETWEEN 80W AND 85W BY 48 HOURS. SOME OF THIS SWELL 
WILL COMBINE WITH FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG/S OF THE MONSOON 
TROUGH BY 48 HOURS FROM 07N TO 12N BETWEEN 92W AND 109W AS WEAK 
LOW PRES ATTEMPTS TO DEVELOP.

$$
LEWITSKY