000
AXPZ20 KNHC 272130
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
2205 UTC SAT JUL 27 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES..                                          

TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE CENTERED NEAR 18.7N 141.0W AT 27/2100 UTC 
OR 920 MILES E OF HILO HAWAII MOVING WNW AT 16 KT. ESTIMATED 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED 
IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEE LATEST CPHC FORECAST/ADVISORY 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HFOTCMCP1/WTPA21 PHFO FOR MORE DETAILS. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM IN THE NE QUADRANT 
...AND BETWEEN 90 AND 300 NM IN THE NE QUADRANT...OVER THE 
DISCUSSION WATERS. FLOSSIE HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY AS 
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ALOFT...MARGINAL SSTS...AND SOME DRY AIR 
INTRUSION BEGIN TO TAKE THEIR TOLL. ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS WILL 
SHIFT W OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS SUN NIGHT...WITH FLOSSIE 
FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII IN 60-72 HOURS. 
INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR FLOSSIE 
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N79W TO 08N90W TO 
10N124W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N124W TO 12N135W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 
NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 81W AND 87W...FROM 07N TO 12N 
BETWEEN 98W AND 103W...AND ALSO WITHIN 60-120 NM S OF THE 
MONSOON TROUGH 109W AND 118W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM N OF A LINE FROM 09N116W TO 13N132W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                

1035 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS 
NEAR 49N138W. A RIDGE EXTENDS TO THE S-SW TO 32N140W THEN SE TO 
20N115W WITH TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE TO THE S-SW OF THE RIDGE. 
OUTSIDE OF FLOSSIE...MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS DOMINATE THE 
WATERS N OF 10N W OF 110W ALONG WITH 4-7 FT SEAS. LITTLE CHANGE 
ACROSS THIS REGION IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER AN AREA OF 8 FT OR 
GREATER SEAS GENERATED BY A GALE W OF THE REDWOOD COAST OF 
CALIFORNIA WILL PUSH TO 30N BY MON AFTERNOON. 

AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS WAS CAPTURED BY A 1600 UTC 
ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS FROM 09N TO 11N BETWEEN 88W AND 92W 
ALONG WITH 8-9 FT SEAS. THESE WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO 
DIMINISH/SUBSIDE DURING THE NEXT 6 HOURS.

CROSS EQUATORIAL MIXED SE AND SW SWELL RESULTING IN COMBINED 
SEAS OF 8-9 FT CONTINUE ACROSS THE DEEP TROPICS TO THE S OF 05N 
ROUGHLY BETWEEN 105W AND 137W. THE AFFECTED AREA IS FORECAST TO 
SHIFT N-NE TO S OF 07N BETWEEN 92W AND 125W BY 24 HOURS...THEN 
WILL PRIMARILY BE ACROSS THE WATERS NE OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS 
BY 48 HOURS. SOME OF THIS SWELL WILL COMBINE WITH FRESH SOUTHERLY 
WINDS ALONG/S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BY 48 HOURS FROM 07N TO 11N 
BETWEEN 91W AND 115W.

$$
LEWITSKY