000 AXPZ20 KNHC 270952 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SAT JUL 27 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE IS CENTERED AT 17.5N 137.6W OR ABOUT 1155 MILES E OF HILO HAWAII AT 27/0900 UTC...MOVING W-NW OR 285 DEG AT 17 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. CURRENTLY NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FLARING WITHIN 75 NM OVER THE N SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 45 NM OVER THE S SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ELSEWHERE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 21N134W TO 16N138W. FLOSSIE IS BEGINNING TO TRACK ACROSS COOLER SEA SURFACE WATERS WITH UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ALSO FORECAST TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE ON SUN. FLOSSIE IS EXPECTED MAINTAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THROUGH EARLY SUN THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN LATE SUN. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVE... A TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED FROM 12-18N ALONG 94W HAS BECOME VERY DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY AND SHIPS REPORTS INDICATE THE WAVE WAS NO LONGER AT THE SURFACE AS OF LATE FRI. THEREFORE THIS WAVE HAS BEEN DROPPED FROM THE SURFACE ANALYSIS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS E TO W ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN FROM THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA AT 10N75W TO ACROSS COSTA RICA TO THE PACIFIC COAST AT 09N85W...CONTINUING W TO 10N110W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE WHICH CONTINUES SW TO 07N124W...THEN NW TO 10N133W WHERE IT LOSES IDENTITY IN THE BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ACCOMPANYING TROPICAL CYCLONE FLOSSIE. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED OVER THE GULF OF PANAMA WITHIN 30 NM OF 08.5N79W...AND ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 08N87W TO 11N105W WHERE FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS DETECTED. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OF 09N114W AND WITHIN 30 NM OF 09N139W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 10-16N BETWEEN 122-128W...AND WITHIN 90 NM OF 16N132W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER CYCLONE IS QUASI STATIONARY N OF THE AREA AT 34N126W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S ALONG 27N127W TO 23N126W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS HAS A RIDGE EXTENDING NE TO A SHARP CREST OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AT 31N137W. ANOTHER UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS JUST E OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FLOSSIE AT 20N127W...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING SW OVER FLOSSIE TO A SHARP CREST AT 17N139W. UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM FLOSSIE IS ADVECTED NE AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH...AND ALONG THE W PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE TO NEAR 27N127W. VERY DRY UPPER AIR IS IS NOTED W OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS JUST TO THE W OF FLOSSIE...AND SHOULD BEGIN TO ENTRAIN INTO THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ON SUN...CONTRIBUTING TO THE FORECASTED WEAKENING TREND. AN UPPER CYCLONE IS AT 21N120W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING S ALONG 120W TO THE DEEP TROPICS AT 07N AND IS SEPARATING THE UPPER FLOW OVER THE TROPICS. UPPER DIFFLUENCE W OF THIS TROUGH IS SUPPORTING THE CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED TO THE W OF 117W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE NEW MEXICO AND ARIZONA BORDER HAS ITS ENVELOPE OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW EXTENDING S OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA TO THE N OF 17N BETWEEN 100-117W AND SPREADING DEBRIS MOISTURE FORM PREVIOUS CONVECTION OVER OLD MEXICO TO OVER THE PACIFIC UNDER THE RIDGE ENVELOPE. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AT 11N81W HAS A RIDGE EXTENDING W ALONG 11N TO A CREST AT 12N100W AND PROVIDING THE UPPER DIFFLUENCE TO SUPPORT THE CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH. THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA BETWEEN 80-93W. NE-E 20-25 KT WINDS ARE PULSING ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO BUT SHOULD DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. COMBINED SEAS OF 6-8 FT ARE EXPECTED IN MIXED SHORT PERIOD E SWELL AND LONG PERIOD SW SWELL. CROSS EQUATORIAL SE AND SW SWELL RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF OF 8 FT CONTINUE ACROSS THE DEEP TROPICS TO THE S OF 03N BETWEEN 112-130W. THE AFFECTED AREA IS FORECAST TO SHIFT NW TO S OF 05N BETWEEN 103-135W TONIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE. S-SW SWELL WILL REACH ALONG 11N BETWEEN 90-110W..AND S OF 05N BETWEEN 81-97W ON SUN NIGHT RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS TO 8 FT. $$ NELSON