000 AXPZ20 KNHC 260949 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC FRI JUL 26 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE IS CENTERED AT 15.4N 130.6W 1000 MB AT 26/0900 UTC MOVING W OR 275 DEG AT 16 KT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. CURRENTLY NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS CONCENTRATED IN A CLUSTER N OF THE CENTER WITHIN 30 NM OF 16N131W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18N131W TO 11N128W. FLOSSIE WILL TRACK ACROSS WARM SEA SURFACE WATERS WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS TODAY THEN THE WATER TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AND THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL BECOME LESS FAVORABLE AND FLOSSIE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A WEAKENING TREND LATE SAT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVE... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 12-21N ALONG 90W BUT IS ONLY ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER INTERIOR GUATEMALA. THE WAVE WILL LIKELY ENHANCE THE DRAINAGE FLOW OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT...BUT EXPECT THE NORTHERLY FLOW TO ONLY MAX AT 20 KT WITH SEAS REMAINING WELL BELOW 8 FT. THE WAVE WILL LIKELY LOSE IDENTITY BY LATE SAT AND IS THEREFORE NOT CARRIED ON THE MARINE PROGNOSTIC CHARTS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS E TO W ALONG 09.5N ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA RICA TO 09N90W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE WHICH CONTINUES W AND NE ALONG 09N013W TO 13N120W WHERE IT LOSES IDENTITY IN THE BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ACCOMPANYING TROPICAL CYCLONE FLOSSIE. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED TO THE N OF 04N E OF 79W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINES FROM 08N91W TO 08N100W TO 11N106W AND FROM 09N130W TO 08N140W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER CYCLONE IS N OF THE AREA AT 33N128W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S ALONG 30N129W TO 24N133W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED W OF AREA NEAR 21N148W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING E INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA TO A SHARP CREST AT 24N133W. ANOTHER UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH A NARROW UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TO A SHARP CREST AT 18N131W...WHICH IS JUST TO THE N OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FLOSSIE. SOME OF THE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM FLOSSIE IS ADVECTED N WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20N128W TO 32N122W AND CONTINUING WELL N OF THE AREA ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. OTHERWISE THE UPPER LEVELS APPEAR VERY DRY N OF 20N W OF 120W AND FROM 13N-20N W OF 133W. SOME OF THIS DRY UPPER AIR WILL ENTRAIN INTO THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN ABOUT A DAY AND CONTRIBUTE TO THE FORECAST WEAKENING TREND. THE ENVELOPE OF ANTICYCONIC FLOW FROM THE TEXAS UPPER ANTICYCLONE EXTENDS S OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC BETWEEN 90W-113W AND IS ENHANCING THE MONSOON TROUGH CONVECTION AS WELL AS CONVECTION STILL FLARING OVER WESTERN MEXICO FROM 15N-28N. THE DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED W ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 14N-28N BETWEEN 96W-113W. NE-E 15-20 KT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH TONIGHT RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 6-8 FT IN MIXED SHORT PERIOD E SWELL AND LONG PERIOD SW SWELL. CROSS EQUATORIAL SE AND SW SWELL RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF OF 8 FT CONTINUE ACROSS THE DEEP TROPICS TO THE S OF 04N BETWEEN 105-125W. THE AFFECTED AREA IS FORECAST TO SHIFT W TO BETWEEN 115-135W ON SAT NIGHT THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 8 FT AS FAR AS 10N BETWEEN 80-110W ON SUN NIGHT INTO MON. $$ NELSON