000 AXPZ20 KNHC 252157 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC FRI JUL 26 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE IS CENTERED NEAR 15.3N 127.4W AT 25/2100 UTC MOVING W AT 16 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER OF FLOSSIE...AND ALSO WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15N125W TO 08N128W. ALTHOUGH FLOSSIE IS DETACHED FROM THE MONSOON TROUGH...A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM REMAINS ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. FLOSSIE IS RUNNING OUT OF TIME FOR MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF STRENGTHENING SINCE THE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO REACH COOLER WATERS SOMETIME ON FRI. THUS THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST MAINTAINS THE SAME INTENSITY FOR 24 HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING COMMENCES. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/ WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N85W TO 07N105W TO 12N117W THEN RESUMES AT 12N130W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROF W OF 135W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 108W AND 116W. ...DISCUSSION... ALOFT...AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED W OF AREA NEAR 16N144W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NE ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL WATERS TO ABOUT 21N135W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND IMPLIED DRY AIR MASS IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS RIDGE. ANOTHER ANTICYCLONE LOCATED OVER ARIZONA DOMINATES THE FLOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE NE FORECAST WATERS. ANOTHER ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 21N101W. EASTERLY WIND FLOW ALOFT COVERS MOST OF THE AREA E OF 115W. AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 23N113W TO 16N115W. ANOTHER INVERTED TROUGH IS WEST OF FLOSSIE AND STRETCHES FROM 32N130W TO 20N132W. GAP WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT CONTINUE OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AS FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW IN THE SW CARIBBEAN FUNNELS THROUGH THE GAP. THE WINDS ARE GREATEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH 48 HOURS. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT. NLY WINDS OF 20 KT WITH SEAS TO 8 FT COULD PERSIST FRI MORNING. CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELLS...WITH PERIODS IN THE 17-18 SECOND RANGE CAN BE FOUND OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST WATERS W OF 120W. THIS SWELL EVENT IS REACHING THE COASTS OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA. ADDITIONAL PULSES OF SW SWELLS ARE ALREADY SPREADING ACROSS THE SOUTH WATERS BETWEEN 115W AND 135W. $$ COBB