000
AXPZ20 KNHC 241505
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
1605 UTC WED JUL 24 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                          

A 1006 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 13N119W IS MOVING W AT 10 
KT AND IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY DETACHED FROM THE MONSOON 
TROUGH. OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS CONVECTION HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER 
ORGANIZED AND IS ARRANGED IN TWO BANDS...ONE EXTENDING OUT UP TO 
240 NM IN THE NW SEMICIRCLE...AND THE OTHER OUT TO 150 NM IN THE 
SE SEMICIRCLE. THE CONVECTION EXHIBITED VERY COLD TOPS WITH 
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES OF -85C NOTED. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO 
TRACK WNW OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF 
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

MONSOON TROUGH 09N84W TO 10N100W TO LOW PRES NEAR 13N119W TO 
11N130W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 150 NM N 
OF AXIS FROM 101W TO 108W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG N OF 10N 
TO THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 100W AND 105W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90-120 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 124W AND 128W AND 90 
NM S OF AXIS W OF 135W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                

NEARLY STATIONARY 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS LOCATED WELL N 
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SE IS 
INFLUENCING THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 130W. A 
VERY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE N 
PORTION OF THE AREA...PARTICULARLY N OF 20N E OF 130W. A WEAK 
SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 31N127W TO 24N130W. NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. TRADE WINDS 
IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE NOTED S OF THE RIDGE AND N OF 
THE MONSOON TROUGH ELSEWHERE W OF 125W.

E WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO.  
THE WINDS ARE GREATEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING 
HOURS WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW.

CROSS EQUATORIAL S AND SW SWELLS TO 8 FT ARE FORECAST TO MOVE 
INTO THE AREA S OF 3N BETWEEN 110W-120W WITHIN 24 HOURS AND 
SPREAD SLOWLY N INTO FRI. 

$$
COBB