000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240917
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
1005 UTC WED JUL 24 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                          

A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 132N118W MOVING W AT 10 
KT AND REMAINS LARGELY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS. 
CONVECTION WITH THE LOW HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED 
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION AWAY FROM THE CENTER FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 117W-122W 
AND FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 117W-120W. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK 
W-NW OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF 
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

MONSOON TROUGH 9N84W TO 10N100W TO LOW PRES NEAR 13N118W TO 
10N125W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 150 NM N 
OF AXIS FROM 101W-106W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM S OF AXIS FROM 124W-128W AND WITHIN 90 
NM S OF AXIS FROM 135W-138W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                

NEARLY STATIONARY 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS LOCATED WELL N 
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SE IS 
INFLUENCING THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 130W. A 
VERY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE N 
PORTION OF THE AREA...PARTICULARLY N OF 20N E OF 130W. A WEAK 
SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 31N125W TO 24N127W. NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. TRADE WINDS IN 
THE RANGE OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE NOTED S OF THE RIDGE AND N OF THE 
MONSOON TROUGH W OF 120W.

E WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO.  
THE WINDS ARE GREATEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING 
HOURS WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW.

CROSS EQUATORIAL S AND SW SWELLS ARE TO 8 FT ARE FORECAST TO 
MOVE INTO THE AREA S OF 3N BETWEEN 110W-120W BY THU.

$$
DGS