000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230916
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
1005 UTC TUE JUL 23 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                    
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED THE A SURFACE LOW NEAR 12N112W HAS BECOME 
SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED. MOST OF THE MODERATE TO ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS ON THE W SIDE OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 9N-14N
BETWEEN 111W-116W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED 
TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND NOW THIS LOW HAS 
THE POSSIBILITY OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 
HOURS AS IT MOVES WNW AT ABOUT 10 KT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 7N81W TO LOW PRES NEAR 12N112W 1009 MB TO 
10N140W. SCATTERED TO STRONG MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM N 
OF AXIS FROM 99W-101W AND WITHIN 240 NM N OF AXIS FROM 110W-114W 
AND WITHIN 150 NM N AND 200 NM S OF AXIS FROM 114W-119W AND 
WITHIN 90 NM S OF AXIS FROM 132W-137W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA 
EXTENDS FROM 19N140W TO 32N135W. DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 27N126W TO   
13N119W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY/STABLE AIR AT 
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS N OF 20N W OF 115W. AN UPPER 
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA 
NEAR 21N112W. ABUNDANT DEEP LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE COVERS ALL
OF MEXICO AND S INTO CENTRAL AMERICA.

SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 120W. S TO SW WINDS 
20-25 KT ARE SE OF THE LOW MENTIONED ABOVE FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 
105W-108W.

$$
DGS