000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230229
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
0405 UTC TUE JUL 23 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0215 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                   
ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY 
HAVE BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW 
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED NEAR 13N109W. MOST OF THE MODERATE TO 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW CENTER 
FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 110W AND 116W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS 
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND NOW 
THIS LOW HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE 
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 KT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 10N95W TO LOW PRES NEAR 
13N109W 1009 MB TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM S 
OF AXIS BETWEEN 99W AND 101W...AND WITHIN 150 NM S OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 105W AND 107W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 
11N TO 14N BETWEEN 121W AND 125W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 07N TO 
11N W OF 128W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                
A NEARLY STATIONARY HIGH PRES LOCATED N OF AREA NEAR 41N142W 
EXTENDS A SURFACE RIDGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE 
FORECAST REGION N OF 20N W OF 128W. VERY WEAK PRES GRADIENT 
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTH WATERS...PARTICULARLY N OF 
20N E OF 128W. A TROUGH OR WEAK LOW PRES IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP 
ACROSS THE NE WATERS IN ABOUT 12-24 HOURS. THE MOST RECENT 
SCATTEROMETER PASSES SHOWED VARIABLE WINDS OF 5-10 KT ACROSS 
THAT AREA. TRADE WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE NOTED S OF THE RIDGE AND 
N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 11N TO 16N W OF 125W. A PAIR OF 
ASCAT PASSES CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE WIND SPEEDS.
 
GAP WINDS OF 20-25 KT CONTINUE OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AS 
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW IN THE SW CARIBBEAN FUNNELS 
THROUGH THE GAP. THE WINDS ARE GREATEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND 
EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF THE NOCTURNAL 
DRAINAGE FLOW. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH THIS TUE.

CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELLS WITH PERIODS IN THE 13-15 SECOND 
RANGE ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL WATERS. THESE 
SWELLS WILL RISE SEAS TO AROUND 8 FT S OF 10N BETWEEN 110W AND 
122W THIS TUE.

$$
GR