000
AXPZ20 KNHC 222119
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
2205 UTC MON JUL 22 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 10N95W TO LOW PRES NEAR 
12N109W 1008 MB TO 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N OF TROUGH BETWEEN 122W AND 
129W...AND WITHIN 90 NM S OF TROUGH W OF 135W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 115W AND 122W.

...DISCUSSION...                                             
HIGH PRES WELL N OF THE AREA EXTENDS A SURFACE RIDGE SOUTHWARD 
ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 20N W OF 128W. 
VERY WEAK PRES GRADIENT DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTH 
WATERS...PARTICULARLY N OF 20N E OF 128W. A TROUGH OR WEAK LOW 
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NE WATERS IN ABOUT 12-24 HOURS.
 
ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY 
HAS INCREASED A LITTLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW PRES LOCATED 
NEAR 12N109W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
NOW SEEN WITHIN 90 NM W SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW CENTER. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ELSEWHERE FROM 
10N TO 13N BETWEEN 108W AND 114W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE 
CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW DURING THE NEXT FEW 
DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 KT. 
CURRENTLY...THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT IN CENTRAL AMERICA IS PRODUCING 20 TO 25 
KT WINDS AND SEAS TO 9 FT DOWNWIND FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
WESTWARD TO AROUND 90W. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH TUE.

CROSS EQUATORIAL LONG PERIOD SW SWELLS ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE 
SOUTH-CENTRAL WATERS. THESE SWELLS WILL RISE SEAS TO AROUND 8 FT 
S OF 10N BETWEEN 110W AND 122W BY TUE.

$$
GR