000
AXPZ20 KNHC 221525
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
1605 UTC MON JUL 22 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS ENTIRE AREA FROM 10N85W TO 11N100W 
TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N108W 1007 MB TO 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
THE TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 100W AND 124W.

...DISCUSSION...                                             
HIGH PRES WELL N OF THE AREA EXTENDS A SURFACE RIDGE SOUTHWARD 
ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 20N W OF 130W. 
ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION IS 
GRADUALLY IMPROVING AROUND A LOW EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH 
NEAR 11N108W...BUT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN UNFAVORABLE 
FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT E OF 120W. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THE 
LOW SLOWLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED THROUGH WED NIGHT...THEN 
INTENSIFYING THROUGH SUN W OF 120W. A BLEND OF GFS AND ECMWF 
MODELS WAS USED FOR FORECAST GRIDS. 

A TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT IN CENTRAL AMERICA IS PRODUCING 20 TO 25 
KT WINDS AND SEAS TO 9 FT DOWNWIND FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
WESTWARD TO AROUND 90W. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH TUE.

LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE IS EXPECTED 
TO REACH THE EQUATORIAL REGION BETWEEN 95W AND 130W WED...AND 
CONTINUE THROUGH SAT.

GALE FORCE WINDS WELL N OF THE AREA ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHERN 
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN OREGON IS SPREADING AN AREA OF N SWELL 
TO 30N BETWEEN 120W AND 135W...WITH 7-8 FT SEAS EXPECTED N OF 
30N BETWEEN 126W AND 133W TODAY.

$$
MUNDELL