000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220237
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
0405 UTC MON JUL 22 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0215 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 12N100W TO LOW PRES NEAR 
10.5N106W 1008 MB TO 11N120W TO 11N134W. ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES 
FROM 11N134W TO BEYOND 11N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND WITHIN 120 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 
82W AND 86W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 90-120 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 92W AND 97W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 
129W AND 132W.

...DISCUSSION...                                             
HIGH PRES WELL N OF THE AREA EXTENDS A SURFACE RIDGE SOUTHWARD 
ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE FORECAST REGION N OF 15N W OF 120W. 
A SMALL AREA OF NE TRADE WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE WITH 
SEAS TO 7-8 FT IS NOTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE 
RIDGE...MAINLY W OF 130W. A WEAK TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 20N112W 
TO 14N115W. ONLY A FEW SHOWERS ARE NOTED NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS. 
ANOTHER TROUGH EXTENDS N OF THE LOW PRES LOCATED NEAR 10.5N106W 
TO AROUND 15N106W. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM  
REMAIN DISORGANIZED. HOWEVER...THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION HAS 
BECOME BETTER DEFINED...AND THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION 
IS SLOWLY IMPROVING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY 
FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW DURING THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 KT. 
CURRENTLY...THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AREA OF 20-25 KT S TO SW 
WINDS WITH SEAS OF 8-9 FT IS NOTED SE AND SW OF THE LOW CENTER. 
THESE WINDS WERE SAMPLED BY AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASS.

GALE FORCE WINDS WELL N OF THE AREA ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHERN 
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN OREGON ARE SPREADING AN AREA OF N SWELL 
SOUTH OF 30N BETWEEN 125W AND 133W...WITH SEAS TO 10 FT BASED ON 
A PAIR OF SHIP OBSERVATIONS. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL 
DIMINISH ACROSS THE N WATERS THIS MON.

GFS MODEL SHOWS MINOR GULF OF PAPAGAYO WIND EVENT DEVELOPING 
WITHIN THE NEXT 06-12 HOURS...AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN 
CENTRAL AMERICA...AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUE MORNING. EXPECT 20 TO 
25 KT WINDS AND SEAS TO 10 FT DOWNWIND FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
WESTWARD TO AROUND 90W THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

$$
GR