000
AXPZ20 KNHC 212121
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
2205 UTC SUN JUL 21 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO LOW PRES NEAR 10.5N105W 
1008 MB TO 09N110W TO 12N125W TO 11N135W. ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES 
FROM 11N135W TO BEYOND 11N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 
05N TO 08N BETWEEN 79W AND 84W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG FROM 06N TO 08N BETWEEN 84W AND 88W...AND FROM 11N TO 14N 
BETWEEN 93W AND 100W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 
111W AND 116W. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH BETWEEN 120W AND 131W.

...DISCUSSION...                                             
HIGH PRES WELL N OF THE AREA EXTENDS A SURFACE RIDGE SOUTHWARD 
ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 15N W OF 116W. 
A WEAK TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 20N112W TO 12N115W. ONLY A FEW 
SHOWERS ARE NOTED NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS. ANOTHER TROUGH EXTENDS N 
OF THE LOW NEAR 10.5N105W TO AROUND 16N105W. ANIMATED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY INDICATES CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION IS SLOWLY IMPROVING 
AROUND THE LOW EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 10.5N105W. 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR SLOW 
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT 
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 KT. CURRENTLY...THIS SYSTEM 
HAS A LOW CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 
48 HOURS. AN AREA OF 20-25 KT S TO SW WINDS WITH TO 9 FT IS 
NOTED SW OF THE LOW CENTER. THESE WINDS WERE SAMPLED BY RECENT 
SCATTEROMETER DATA.

GALE FORCE WINDS WELL N OF THE AREA ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHERN 
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN OREGON IS SPREADING AN AREA OF N SWELL 
SOUTH OF 30N BETWEEN 125W AND 132W...WITH 8-9 FT SEAS. THESE 
MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MON.

GFS MODEL SHOWS MINOR GULF OF PAPAGAYO WIND EVENT DEVELOPING 
WITHIN THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS...AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN 
CENTRAL AMERICA...AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUE MORNING. EXPECT 20 TO 
25 KT WINDS AND SEAS TO 10 FT DOWNWIND FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
WESTWARD TO AROUND 90W THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

$$
GR