000
AXPZ20 KNHC 211525
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
1605 UTC SUN JUL 21 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN FROM 09N84W 
TO LOW PRES NEAR 10N104W 1008 MB TO 12N120W TO 11N140W. NUMEROUS 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 05N E OF 85W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM N 
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 89W AND 99W...AND WITHIN 90 
NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 106W AND 115W.

...DISCUSSION...                                             
HIGH PRES WELL N OF THE AREA EXTENDS A SURFACE RIDGE SOUTHWARD 
ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 16N W OF 119W. 
A WEAK TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 20N111W TO 15N115W WHILE ANOTHER 
TROUGH EXTENDS N OF THE LOW NEAR 10N104W TO AROUND 17N105W. 
ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION IS 
SLOWLY IMPROVING AROUND THE LOW EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH 
NEAR 10N104W BUT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR 
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT E OF 120W. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THE LOW 
SLOWLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED THROUGH WED...THEN INTENSIFYING 
THROUGH SAT W OF 120W. USED A BLEND OF GFS AND ECMWF MODELS AT 
00 UTC TO BETTER REFLECT UPDATED FORECAST GUIDANCE THAN SHOWN BY 
PREVIOUS OFFICIAL GRIDS. 

GALE FORCE WINDS WELL N OF THE AREA ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHERN 
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN OREGON IS SPREADING AN AREA OF N SWELL 
SOUTH OF 30N BETWEEN 120W AND 135W...WITH 8-9 FT SEAS EXPECTED 
TO CONTINUE N OF 29N BETWEEN 125W AND 130W THROUGH MON.

GFS MODEL SHOWS MINOR GULF OF PAPAGAYO WIND EVENT DEVELOPING 
WITHIN THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS...AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN 
CENTRAL AMERICA...AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUE MORNING. EXPECT 20 TO 
25 KT WINDS AND SEAS TO 9 FT DOWNWIND FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
WESTWARD TO AROUND 90W THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

$$
MUNDELL