000 AXPZ20 KNHC 161530 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC TUE JUL 16 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N103W TO 17N103W MOVING W AT 10 KT. THE WAVE IS CURRENTLY ACCOMPANIED BY ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 102W TO 106W...AND SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH AND MORE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 06N TO 11N BETWEEN 100W AND 105W. THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BECOME DIFFUSE AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD THROUGH THURSDAY. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N79W TO 10N85W TO 09N90W TO 13N102W TO 11N115W TO 12N120W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 12N120W TO 12N125W TO 09N140W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 10N BETWEEN 79W AND 85W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 09N BETWEEN 95W AND 99W...FROM 06N TO 11N BETWEEN 100W AND 105W...AND FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 109W AND 116W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 124W AND 140W. ...DISCUSSION... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA NEAR 40N128W THAT EXTENDS A TROUGH AXIS SOUTHWARD INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA TO ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 22N122W. VERY DRY AIR ACCOMPANIES THIS LOW WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERING THE AREA N OF 14N E OF 123W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 13N135W WITH ITS INFLUENCE SPREADING OVER THE AREA W OF 126W. DRY AIR ALOFT IS INDICATED WITH THIS FEATURE GENERALLY N OF 13N WITH AREAS S OF 13N LADEN WITH MORE MOISTURE DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ AXIS. A PERSISTENT AND ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS OVER THE DEEP TROPICS CENTERED NEAR 02N96W WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO BEYOND 00N101W. ALL OF THE ABOVE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES REMAIN RATHER BENIGN WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION OCCURRING WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ REGION...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE LONE TROPICAL WAVE PROGRESSING WESTWARD SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN MEXICO COAST. AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG 1037 MB HIGH CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 48N151W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE THROUGH 32N136W TO 20N120W. THIS HIGH PRESSURE AREA COVERS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN WATERS N OF 16N WITH NE TRADES MAINTAINING A RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT PER EARLIER ASCAT PASSES BETWEEN 16/0536 UTC AND 16/0716 UTC. SEAS OVER THIS AREA RANGE FROM 4 TO 5 FT IN THE FAR NW CORNER AND MAXIMIZE IN THE 6 TO 7 FT RANGE FROM 10N TO 20N WEST OF 130W. THESE OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THURSDAY. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE WINDS WILL INCREASE BRIEFLY TO 15-20 KT LATE EACH NIGHT AND CONTINUE UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE EACH MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SOUTHWESTERLY SWELLS RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS TO 8 FT OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE TOWARD THE NORTH AMERICAN CONTINENT COAST REACHING THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY IN THE 19 TO 21 SECONDS RANGE...THE MEXICO COAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE 18 TO 20 SECONDS RANGE...AND THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AMERICA COAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY IN THE RANGE OF 18 TO 20 SECONDS. $$ HUFFMAN