000 AXPZ20 KNHC 161005 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC TUE JUL 16 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 102W FROM 10N-17N MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE IS CURRENTLY ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM OF LINE FROM 14N98W TO 16N100W. SCATTERED MODERATE IS SEEN WITHIN 30 NM OF 12N102W. THE ASCAT PASS FROM 0354 UTC AGAIN NICELY CAPTURED THE NE-E-SE WIND SHIFT OF 10-15 KT ACROSS THE WAVE. THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BECOME DIFFUSE AS TRACKS WESTWARD THROUGH THU. DAMPENS THE WAVE ON WED AND THU. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS W FROM THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AT 07N78W...AND EXTENDS TO 08N90W TO 10N101W TO 08N108W TO 11N124W AND TO 10N137W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE. THE ITCZ THEN CONTINUES W ALONG 10N TO BEYOND 10N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF 07N80W...AND WITHIN 60 NM N OF AXIS W OF 138W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S AND 60 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 106W-110W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 125W-129W...AND WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 129W AND 136W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA AT 34N120W INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 32N122W TO 23N126W. SOUTHERLY DRY FLOW ALOFT IS INDICATED E OF THE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE AT 14N134W WITH ITS ENVELOPE OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA N OF 12N BETWEEN 128W-140W. ITCZ DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED N AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE...BUT EVAPORATES AS REACHES NEAR 19N WHERE IT ENCOUNTERS VERY DRY AIR ALOFT AS SUGGESTED BY THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE VISIBLE IN THE IMAGERY. A PERSISTENT AND RATHER ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES OVER THE DEEP TROPICS NEAR 04N98W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO BEYOND 00N138W. A WELL-DEFINED UPPER LOW IS CENTERED AT 21N121W...AND IS MOVING DUE W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW N TO A SHARP CREST AT 28N121W WHILE THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS 360 NM SW AND 540 NM SE QUADRANTS OF THE CENTER. BOTH THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AND LOW ARE COMBINING TO SET UP AN UPPER DEFORMATION ZONE OVER THE LOWER LEVEL MONSOON TROUGH AND IS ENHANCING THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS NOTED MOVING SE JUST E OF NE NICARAGUA WITH ITS ENVELOPE OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW EXTENDING S OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC N OF 10N BETWEEN 84W-101W. A SMALL AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ALONG THE W PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE AND SUPPORTING THE CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED ALONG THE THE TROPICAL WAVE. SOME OF THE DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED N AND NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AROUND AN UPPER CYCLONE NEAR 22N93W. AT THE SURFACE TO LOW LEVELS...STRONG HIGH PRES OF 1037 MB N OF THE AREA EXTENDS A RIDGE SE THROUGH 32N138W TO 26N123W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 122W. NE TRADES OF INCREASING TO 15-20 KT ACROSS THE TROPICS FROM 11N-21N W OF ABOUT 129W WITH SEAS MAXING OUT TO 7 FT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THU. NW WINDS CURRENTLY AT 5-10 KT ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TUE...THEN ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15 KT THIS EVENING OVER THE ADJACENT WATERS TO THE N OF 28N. NW WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE EXPECTED N OF 25N W OF THE BAJA PENINSULA TO ALONG 122W ON THU...WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS TO 7 FT. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE WINDS WILL INCREASE BRIEFLY TO 15-20 KT LATE EACH NIGHT AND CONTINUE UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE EACH MORNING THROUGH FRI MORNING. S SWELLS RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS TO 8 FT S OF 02N BETWEEN 112W- 131W ARE FORECAST TO REACH TO 06N BETWEEN 110W-122W AND ALSO S OF 04N BETWEEN 104W-110W AND S OF 04N BETWEEN 122W-126W BY LATE TONIGHT...AND TO 11N BETWEEN 105W-108W AND ALSO S OF LINE FROM 09S108W TO 00N130W AND A LINE FROM 10S105W TO 00N95W BY LATE WED NIGHT. LONG PERIOD SW SWELL ENERGY SHOULD REACH THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA...INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA...AS EARLY AS WED NIGHT. $$ AGUIRRE