000 AXPZ20 KNHC 151005 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC MON JUL 15 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 16N96W TO 10N97W MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 13 KT. THE ASCAT PASS FROM 0414 UTC LAST NIGHT NICELY CAPTURED THE WIND SHIFT FROM NE TO SE ACROSS THE WAVE AXIS WITH WIND VECTORS WITH SPEEDS OF 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS ACCOMPANIED BY ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ALONG...AND WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 10N TO 12N...AND WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS FROM 12N TO 14N. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ELSEWHERE ALONG AND WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE WAVE. THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO REACH A POSITION FROM NEAR 17N101W TO 12N102W BY THIS EVENING...AND FROM 18N104W TO NEAR 11N107W BY TUE EVENING. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS W FROM THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AT 09N78W TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL PANAMA...TO 09N91W TO 10N100W TO TO 11N110W TO 12N118W TO 12N124W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE. THE ITCZ THEN CONTINUES W TO 12N130W...THEN TURNS SW TO BEYOND 10N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH AND ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 124W-128W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE TROUGH E OF 82W...AND ALSO WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 127W-131W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 30 NM OF 08N119W...AND 30 NM OF 07N123W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS EVIDENT AT 16N132W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING NEWD TO 27N124W...AND ANOTHER RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO BEYOND 09N140W. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS W OF THE AREA FROM 18N148W TO 10N143W. THE UPPER FLOW BETWEEN BOTH OF THESE FEATURES IS PULLING DEBRIS MOISTURE...IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS...ORIGINATING FROM THE ITCZ NNE TO NEAR 20N BETWEEN 131W-140W BEFORE IT DISSIPATES IN DRY AIR ALOFT AS NOTED ON SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE IMAGERY DEPICTS VERY DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS COVERING THE AREA TO THE N OF 20N W OF 132W...AND ALSO TO THE N OF 16N E OF 132W EXCEPT FROM 17N TO 27N E OF 123W WHERE A CUT-OFF WEAK UPPER LOW NEAR 21N118W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH NNW TO A SHARP CREST AT 29N122W IS ATTENDANT BY JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE BROKEN LOW TO MID- LEVEL CLOUDS FROM ABOUT 10N TO 24N BETWEEN 117W-122W. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER LOW ESE TO NEAR 19N108W. THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AROUND THIS UPPER LOW IS ALSO PULLING IN DEBRIS MOISTURE...FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL...NW ACROSS THE SRN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND SRN SECTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND INTO THE AREA OF MOISTURE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. MOST OF THE THIS ADDITIONAL DEBRIS MOISTURE IS IN THE FORM SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS. AN UPPER CYCLONE SLOWLY MOVING E IS OVER THE DEEP TROPICS NEAR 03N120W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO BEYOND 04N140W. THE UPPER FLOW IS SLIGHTLY DIFFLUENT ENOUGH BETWEEN THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROPICAL UPPER RIDGE AND THIS UPPER CYCLONE AND TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED ALONG THE ITCZ THE UPPER A NARROW UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WITH ITS BASE STRETCHING SW TO NEAR NEAR 16N97W. THE EARLIER WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION NOTED OVER THE SRN AND SE PORTIONS OF MEXICO UNDER DIFFLUENT FLOW AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH HAS DIMINISHED SOME...HOWEVER IT IS EXPECTED TO FORM AGAIN DURING TODAY. THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH IS ALSO HELPING TO AID CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE DESCRIBED ABOVE. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN GUATEMALA WITH ITS ENVELOPE OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW EXTENDING S OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC ALONG 06N BETWEEN 84W-100W...AND IS PROVIDING JUST ENOUGH UPPER DIFFLUENCE ALONG ITS PERIPHERY TO SUPPORT THE ISOLATED CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AND NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE. THE DEBRIS MOISTURE DOES NOT LAST VERY LONG AS IT EVAPORATES IN THE AMPLE DRY AIR THAT EXISTS ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE AND LOW LEVELS...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A STRONG 1036 MB HIGH N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AT 48N144W SEWD THROUGH 32N135W TO 28N130W TO NEAR 22N121W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 19N AND W OF 123W. NE TRADES AT SPEEDS OF 15-20 KT CONTINUE ACROSS THE TROPICS FROM 11N-18N W OF 132W WITH SEAS OF 5-7 FT... AND ARE FORECAST TO CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS. GRADIENT WILL RELAX ON MON WITH THE TRADES DIMINISHING TO 15 KT ON MON NIGHT. THE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN ON TUE WITH THE NE TRADES AT 15-20 KT S OF THE RIDGE. NW WINDS CURRENTLY AT 5-10 KT ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TUE...THEN INCREASE TO NW AT 15 KT ON TUE NIGHT ACROSS THESE WATERS TO THE N OF 28N. NW WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE EXPECTED N OF 25N W OF THE BAJA PENINSULA TO ALONG 122W ON THU...WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS TO 7 FT. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE TO 15-20 KT DURING THIS MORNING...AND LAST UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK. THESE WINDS WILL PULSE BACK UP AGAIN TONIGHT AND TUE NIGHT. S TO SW SWELLS RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS TO 8 FT WILL CROSS THE EQUATOR TODAY...AND SHOULD REACH TO NEAR 03N BY LATE TONIGHT BETWEEN 114W-130W...AND TO NEAR 06N BETWEEN 110W-123W AND TO 04N BETWEEN 123W-128W BY LATE TUE NIGHT WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. $$ AGUIRRE