000 AXPZ20 KNHC 150238 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC MON JUL 15 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0230 UTC. ...TROPICAL LOWS AND WAVES... THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PREVIOUSLY NEAR 18N106W HAS DISSIPATED. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED TO THE N OF 10N BETWEEN 95W-97W AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF WAVE AXIS. ONLY A NE-E-SE 10-15 KT WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS AS IT CONTINUES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 12 KT. ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE GRADUALLY DAMPENS THE WAVE WITH TIME...IT MAINTAINS THE NE-E-SE WIND SHIFT ALONG THE WAVE AXIS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE WAVE AXIS REACHING ALONG 120W ON SAT. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS W FROM THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AT 08N78W TO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF PANAMA...THEN TURNS SW TO 06N90W...THEN NW TO 11N112W TO 10N119W TO 12N124W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE. THE ITCZ THEN CONTINUES W TO 12N132W...THEN TURNS SW TO BEYOND 10N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 80W-102W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14N106W TO 08N118W AND ALSO WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 123W-137W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS AT 23N134W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING NE TO 27N124W AND A RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO BEYOND 19N140W. ANOTHER SMALL UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS NOTED AT 21N127W. A THIRD UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS STATIONARY AT 17N132W AND IS ADVECTING DEBRIS MOISTURE...ORIGINATING WITHIN THE ITCZ...NORTHWARD TO ALONG 20N BETWEEN 131W-140W. OTHERWISE...THESE FEATURES COMBINE TO DRY OUT THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA TO THE N OF 17N W OF 122W. AN UPPER CYCLONE IS QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE DEEP TROPICS NEAR 07N129W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO BEYOND 04N140W. THE UPPER FLOW IS SLIGHTLY DIFFLUENT BETWEEN THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROPICAL UPPER RIDGE AND THIS TROPICAL UPPER TROUGH...AND IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED ALONG THE ITCZ. A WELL-DEFINED UPPER CYCLONE IS CENTERED AT 18N115W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING N TO A SHARP CREST AT 28N118W. AN UPPER TROUGH ALSO EXTENDS SE TO 17N108W. THIS UPPER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS PULLING DEBRIS MOISTURE...FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL...W ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TO OVER THE PACIFIC REMAINING TRAPPED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WITH THE WESTERN BOUNDARY OF THE MOISTURE EXTENDING N TO S ALONG 121W FROM 19N-31N. NEW CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE AND EXPECT THE FUTURE DEBRIS MOISTURE TO BECOME WRAPPED IN THIS UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW. AN UPPER TROUGH IS AMPLIFYING S ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH ITS BASE AT 17N97W. SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION FLARES OVER MEXICO TO THE S OF 20N LATE SUN AFTERNOON WITH THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS NOW SHIFT S TO ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN GUATEMALA AND 21N. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN GUATEMALA WITH ITS ENVELOPE OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW EXTENDING S OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC ALONG 06N BETWEEN 84W-98W...AND PROVIDING JUST ENOUGH UPPER DIFFLUENCE ALONG ITS PERIPHERY TO SUPPORT THE ISOLATED CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AND NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE. THE DEBRIS MOISTURE SEEMS TO EVAPORATE WITHIN A FEW HUNDRED MILES OF THE CLUSTERS AS THE UPPER RIDGE IS ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR ALOFT. AT THE LOW LEVELS A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N136W TO 13N108W. NE TRADES AT 15-20 KT ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE TROPICS FROM 11N-18N W OF 132W WITH SEAS OF 5-7 FT IN MIXING NE AND SE SWELL. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ON MON WITH THE TRADES DIMINISHING TO 15 KT ON MON NIGHT. THE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN ON TUE WITH THE NE TRADES AT 15-20 KT S OF THE RIDGE. NW WINDS CURRENTLY AT 5-10 KT ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TUE...THEN INCREASE TO NW AT 15 KT ON TUE NIGHT ACROSS THESE WATERS TO THE N OF 28N. NW WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE EXPECTED N OF 25N W OF THE BAJA PENINSULA TO ALONG 122W ON THU...WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS TO 7 FT. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE WINDS WILL INCREASE BRIEFLY TO 15-20 KT LATE EACH NIGHT AND CONTINUE UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE EACH MORNING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. S SWELLS RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS TO 8 FT WILL ARRIVE ALONG THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 115W-128W ON MON NIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL REACH ALONG 06N BETWEEN 100W-115W ON WED THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE. HOWEVER THE LONG PERIOD SW SWELL ENERGY WILL REACH THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA LATE IN THE WEEK. $$ NELSON