000 AXPZ20 KNHC 140957 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SUN JUL 14 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0930 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... WHAT WAS RECENTLY A CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS NOW ANALYZED INLAND ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO WITH ITS FAR SOUTHERN PORTION APPROACHING THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. IT IS MOVING W AT 10 KT. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FLARING UP AHEAD OF THE WAVE OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE TAIL END OF A LARGE DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS S TO INLAND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...WITH ASSOCIATED DIFFLUENT FLOW TO ITS S ENHANCING THIS CONVECTION. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS W FROM THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AT 08N78W ACROSS PANAMA TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA RICA AT 10N86W...AND CONTINUES NW TO 11N94W TO 11N110W TO 11N122W ...WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE. THIS ITCZ THEN CONTINUES W TO 11N130W...AND SW TO BEYOND 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 134W-137W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS W OF 137W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 120W-125W...AND FROM 06N-10N E OF 90W. ...DISCUSSION... AN ELONGATED UPPER CYCLONE MOVING ENE IS N OF THE AREA NEAR 36N135W WITH A NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE AREA THROUGH 32N127W...AND TO 27N123W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS AT 15N123W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING ESE TO 10N104W...AND ANOTHER RIDGE EXTENDING NW TO ANOTHER UPPER ANTICYCLONE AT 16.5N132W AND TO W OF THE AREA AT 20N143W. THESE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES COMBINE TO DRY OUT THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA TO THE N OF 17N W OF 117W AS SHOWN BY PRESENCE OF MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AN ELONGATED UPPER CYCLONE IS IDENTIFIED OVER THE FAR DEEP TROPICS NEAR 05N127W WITH A TROUGH NW TO 06N140W. THE UPPER FLOW IS SLIGHTLY DIFFLUENT BETWEEN THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROPICAL UPPER RIDGE AND THE UPPER TROUGH...AND IS ENHANCING THE ITCZ- RELATED CONVECTION DESCRIBED ABOVE. THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF MAINLY BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS FANS OUT ACROSS THE AREA FROM 08N-15N BETWEEN 116W-132W. W OF 132W... DEBRIS UPPER MOISTURE SPREADS N TO 18N AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE AT 16.5N132W. A WELL-DEFINED UPPER CYCLONE MOVING QUICKLY TO THE W IS LOCATED AT 20N114W. THE UPPER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS PULLING DEBRIS MOISTURE...FROM CONVECTION ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL...WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THIS CONVECTION IS SLOWLY DIMINISHING WITH TIME. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF CENTRAL AMERICA DOMINATES THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN OVER THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC. WITH THIS FLOW BEING FROM THE NE...UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER INLAND CENTRAL AMERICA IS BEING ADVECTED SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR 08N BEFORE IT EVAPORATES AS THE UPPER LEVELS ABRUPTLY BECOME DRY ALL THE WAY S TO BEYOND THE EQUATOR. AT THE LOW LEVELS...STRONG 1031 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AT 46N142W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE THROUGH 32N132W...AND TO 21N118W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 20N AND W OF 120W. NE TRADES AT 15-20 KT ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE TROPICS FROM 11N-18N W OF ABOUT 130W WITH SEAS OF 5-7 FT. THE 1031 MB HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT NW OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS WHILE INTENSIFYING. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED WITH THIS TRADES THROUGH THEN. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE PERSISTENT IN SUGGESTING THAT WEAK LOW PRES WILL MATERIALIZE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA ALONG AND NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. IN ADDITION...MOISTURE POTENTIAL AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO INCREASE WITHIN THE SAME AREA WITH THE MOISTURE SURGING FROM E TO W. S SWELLS RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS TO 8 FT ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE EQUATOR BY MON EVENING REACHING TO 01N BETWEEN 118W- 131W...TO 02N BETWEEN 119W-130W BY LATE MON NIGHT...AND TO NEAR 04N BETWEEN 106W-128W BY TUE. $$ AGUIRRE