000 AXPZ20 KNHC 140240 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SUN JUL 14 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0230 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED OVER GUATEMALA AND THE MEXICAN YUCATAN TO THE N OF 13N ALONG 91W AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE MAY ENHANCE CONVECTION IS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON SUN. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS W FROM THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AT 08N78W ACROSS PANAMA TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA RICA AT 10N86W CONTINUING NW TO 11N94W...THEN W TO 11N121W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE. THIS ITCZ THEN CONTINUES W TO 11N130W THEN WSW TO BEYOND 00N140W. ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED TO THE S OF THE EASTERN SEGMENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH...ROUGHLY WITHIN 15 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 06.5N79W TO 07N85W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12N95W TO 11.5N113.5W TO 12.5N125W TO 08.5N140W...WITH THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY WITHIN 90 NM OF 10N130W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER CYCLONE IS QUASI-STATIONARY AT 34N138W WITH A NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH EXTENDING SE ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 30N132W TO 24N127W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS AT 15N123W WITH AN TROPICAL UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING ESE TO 10N104W...AND AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING W TO A CREST AT 16N137W. THESE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES COMBINE TO DRY OUT THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA TO THE N OF 17N W OF 117W. AN UPPER CYCLONE HAS FORMED OVER THE DEEP TROPICS NEAR 05N127W WITH A TROUGH SW TO 05N140W. THE UPPER FLOW IS SLIGHTLY DIFFLUENT BETWEEN THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROPICAL UPPER RIDGE AND THE UPPER TROUGH...AND IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED TO THE W OF 110W. THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE FANS OUT ACROSS THE AREA FROM 08N-14N BETWEEN 110W-132W WITH SOME OF THE MOISTURE NW SPREADING N ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE WESTERN RIDGE AT 16N135W. A WELL-DEFINED UPPER CYCLONE IS CENTERED AT 20N111W. THE UPPER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS PULLING DEBRIS MOISTURE...FROM CONVECTION ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL...W ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. A SMALL UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS RESULTING IN UPPER NE FLOW ACROSS THE TROPICS E OF 102W WHICH IS ADVECTING THE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION OVER INTERIOR CENTRAL AMERICA...TO THE SW BUT MOSTLY EVAPORATING ALONG 08N AS THE UPPER LEVELS APPEAR VERY DRY S OF 04N BETWEEN 88W-108W. AT THE LOW LEVELS A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N130W TO 17N106W. NE TRADES AT 15-20 KT ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE TROPICS FROM 11N-18N W OF 125W WITH SEAS OF 5-7 FT IN MIXING NE AND S SWELL. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SERIES OF CYCLONIC SWIRLS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BUT ACCOMPANIED BY ONLY 5-10 KT WINDS. A STRONGER CIRCULATION IS SUGGESTED TO DEVELOP NEAR 08N90W DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. S SWELLS RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS TO 8 FT WILL ARRIVE ALONG THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 115W-130W ON MON NIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL REACH ALONG 06N BETWEEN 100W-120W ON WED THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE. $$ NELSON